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Reminders

refer to my Forex and TA threads for details.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=179613

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=179167

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She saw her husband go into the motel with another girl. That's PRICE. Months and months of agonizing events and news followed. But PRICE in one glance told the outcome would be deep shit. Tha's all one needs to know, the details of the shit are irrelevant. Therefore all the crap on CNBC is totally bollox. PRICE foretold already.

My Vix monthly double-bottom or cup with handle EMPIRE busting neckline breakout in 2008 is now ready for take-off. The Daily as you already know has blasted out the gate already like a fckin rocket.

Also note the comments on BEAR having named HIS beneficiaries in leg #1 down, namely the $ and Yen.

If I'm right that the next leg down is now underway, then its clear from the rampage Yen is causing that BEAR hasn't changed a thing.

Get your cash out of the large banks, hold $ and Yen, dump all others. Keep at least a 2-yr supply of hard cash on hand and defo not
in any safe deposit box.

In addition to the Vix, my fav indicator I spoke of in the TA thread has also broken out. (Moodys BAA Corp. bond yield minus 30-yr T-Bond yield). If this breakout holds, it is serious because it goes right to the heart of BEAR w.r.t. RISK. The breakout occurred on May 6, only a few days after the Dow april 26 top. And now the indicator has broken out above the 200-day m.a. with the 50 about to golden cross.

Its bad enough I gotta listen to ET's stubborn baron but be prepared for other barons telling you the bottom is in bla bla like these other barons did 80 years ago.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/writing/2009/03/great-depression-quotes-1929-vs-2008-1.html

 

greetings and best wishes to baron.

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baron's ET viewed from a different perspective: (very useful for a newbie to know this up front)

Market savvy folk at ET? If so then why are ET-ers the absolute LAST to acknowledge warning signs and SPOT market turns and REVERSALS?

ET-ers are TREND savvy? If so, then why the fixation on nanotimeframes?

ET-ers always extrapolate a new trend to infinity. ALWAYS! Then get whacked on the TURN that they NEVER see coming.

ET-ers hammer anyone trying to get out of line and commit the ultimate sin, "calling a top/bottom"

Why? .... Because ET is a HERD in its own right, its own dimension. Therefore the laws of SENTIMENT (like Bernstein's DSI Index applied to the gen. public, et al) work outstandingly well when applied to ET. Put another way, what you see on the Price chart is ET.

Proof follows next

 

The proof:


(( Use ET's search function and dig up all threads/comments you can find re: any market top or bottom, for example Dow Jones Oct07 top, March09 low etc., etc. And you're in luck because now if the April 26 Dow top holds firm, then you can read comments so close to present time as to be realtime. What you're looking for is unanimous one-way thought-ing, a HERD characteristic.))

Do this one first: Dollar during Oct 09 - Nov 09. Study the comments in detail. Take your time searching and reading, its well worth it. This will be very conclusive on so many levels because first of all the $ Index and his coterminus gorgeous, mellifluous partner EurUsd are the President and Prime Minister of Earth respectively and all others bow sycophantly and in deference, even the mighty Dow (the S&P is a faggot ) is just a butler to these 2 magnificent champions. And for another reason ... read up on all the ET-ers saying "$ death because of the stimulus and voracious money printing, bla bla - even the dilution couldn't kill him"

Your findings will be worse at ET (0.00001% $ bulls) than the same test done on the general public via the DSI Index which had $ bulls at 2 or 3% at the $ bottom in Nov 09. The huge discrepancy is not an ET weakness. Its a powerhouse ET strength. Why? Because the ET HERD is even dumber than the public HERD. Therefore ET provides the SENTIMENT alert quicker than the DSI = save $2k/month DSI fees.

PRICE is the ultimate arbiter, but SENTIMENT is the signal that the enemy has crossed the bridge and that DEFCON 4 alert is ON.

OK? .... Newbies go see for yourselves what I mean. Goodluck. Luv you all.

 

Bonus:

Now apply this to the absolutely current = right fckin NOW to the $, the Dow Jones et al.

Let's just keep it simple and take only $ or EurUsd.

Read ET-ers' comments - especially noting that last year they called $ death and now they are calling Euro death. See how fickle these mothers are?

Then note how they are searching and searching technically and fundamentally (searching where? why of course on their nanosecond charts!!!!) for why the sideways action in EurUsd for the last 2 weeks. Ditto for CNBC. Why has Euro death not accelerated, why the downside momentum slowing down, bla bla.

Switch your chart to monthly and draw a Fib grid (2000-2008) and there is the answer. We're on the 50% support. Not just on it. Smack on it. How strong is a monthly Fib? Think "battalion" .... what else does it tell us? If EurUsd rallies poorly, then we know $ power is huge - if it rallies strongly and reverses totally, then it would be another touchdown for ET-er sentiment because its unanimous Euro haters now (98%)

We wait and see!

This is the kind of stuff I want dear baron to teach us, but its fckin odd that I who don't know doodly gotta do this shit. I'm surrounded by morons! Misery loves company! )))

Coming to ET to learn or improve trading has worse odds of success than going to a monastery to learn to fuck. I hope this ain't true.

 

No boss, not for not having a crystal ball, rather for having NO BALLS.

Market savvy, predictions, expertise, I came here to learn these things from you, boss. You advertised, I'm a newbie, I came when I read this,

"Welcome to Elite Trader, the #1 community for active traders of Stocks, Futures, Options, and Currencies"

I don't know about other newbies but what got me was the combo

Elite, #1, active

yeah boss, that got me real good.

As always, never any hard feelings on my part.

 

boss,

this is in line with the theme/topic of the thread - it dovetails into my earlier posts re: tutorial or learning forum classes for us newbies taught by an exp. trader - so I'm not wandering off-topic .....

I came to ET for ONE thing only - realtime. I've got daily, weekly and monthly covered, meaning I can improve on my own because my method works. But realtime fails me totally.

see next post's realtime play for next week - if it fails, then you will know exactly what my deficiencies are - hence the tutorial class.

I wish you can help me, boss.

 

EurUsd big-pip short- or intermediate-term play

Note: I'm not going to mention any wavecounting. This is now pure basic TA.

EurUsd on monthly 50% Fib support as mentioned earlier. Euro haters aka bears @ 98%. Sentiment analysis (the 98%) provides the Defcon 4 high alert for short-term or intermediate-term reversal. Now we wait for Price to signal the turn. We watch this on the 5-min. chart. Close short on any sub-wave higher close., then reverse and go Long. Stop (for new LONG) goes below the 5-min. wave low.

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the analysis and thought-ing:

the key here is PRICE's trickery - he gave no clues whatsoever thus far, i.e. no obvious clues. But there is one thing HE cannot hide - his own bone structure, aka the TRIANGLE seen clearly on 4H AND occurring right smack on the monthly fib support.

Triangles occur in the penultimate position - therefore the breakdown on friday was the terminal wave. When it ends there will be a fckin MASSIVE rocket move north as the elasticity of the monthly fib kicks in ++++ right there too is the massive 200 month m.a. and GANN's 144 right under. This is massive slingshot + rocket power.

This is why its v. important to be swift, deft and agile in closing the short and jumping quickly on the LONG.

Why wait for the 5-min. subwave takeout? Because we don't know how far south the monthly Fib elasticity will stretch. The $ downside firepower is massive, but the TRIANGLE is the whisper that a reversal is IMMINENT!!!


analyzed entirely and solely (as is everything else) by

Deadbroke H. Novice (H. stands for humiliated-often)

 

boss,

see TA thread below .... the calls are CLEARLY long-term calls as suggested clearly in the chart. We are on our way, so evaluation will come up within months.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=179613

but let's take this important one up right now ... all info in the TA thread above.

see page 7 for these extracts .....

January 14, 2010 .... i.e. 3 months before the actual thus far "holding" top.

>>>>> Just the kind of thing Jones would do, namely the obvious, i.e. go to 161.8% extrapolation of the most obvious wave as shown in chart - and this after the numerous hints along the way up from March 2009 - hints such as .....

near perfect hits at 38.2%, 50%, then major July correction landing right at 61.8%, then even nailing 78.6%, 88.3% and using 100% as a springboard.

The only one left is 161.8% @ 10,872. <<<<<

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this quote on page 15 of same TA thread above ... on April 15, 2010, just 2 weeks before the top.


>>>> reiterating TOP is imminent Now or @ 11,182 or 11,294 (=61.8%)

Jones @ 200-wk m.a. = stiff resistance

LTm.a. X 200 m.a. @ 1" to the left suggests cascading waterfall decline. <<<<<

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summarizing this particular call success ...

(note there are mistakes in the thread as I was learning, most were on realtime which has not yet been ironed out)

the 161.8% target was hit and exceeded by a small bit and then failed as a support, so still OK and acceptable as a target call.

the 61.8% hit IS a perfect hit.

the 200-week m.a suggested as a stiff resistance also fired beautifully.

did we get a waterfall decline? yeah baby, we got a fckin fat finger decline which is ten times worse because its being lied about profusely. The truth is that we are in wave 3 down and waterfalls and dicks chopped off is the order of business.
but the type of waterfall I had in mind is yet to come - and that will make fat finger look like a chump.

Have a good one, boss

 

If a crystal ball is frowned upon, then so is P R E S C I E N C E.

(Erin and Mark just learned this word a few weeks ago, use it often and always mispronounce it. The only one who gets it right is Simon Hobbs, a fellow who has helped me alot in the past)

But PRESCIENCE can and does save financial/+other lives. And it is not as rare a commodity as the HERD would have one believe.

In light of what Benny is now saying, a quickview of ET's professors - the founding fathers of ZERO-PRESCIENCE - personally I would love to meet their tailors ......

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>>>>>>>

April 20th, 2007 – Paulson: "I don't see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it's going to be largely contained." , "All the signs I look at" show "the housing market is at or near the bottom,"

June 20th, 2007 – Bernanke: (the subprime fallout) ``will not affect the economy overall.''

July 12th, 2007 – Paulson: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."

October 15th, 2007 – Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."

February 29th, 2008 – Bernanke: "I expect there will be some failures. I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system."

May 7, 2008 – Paulson: 'The worst is likely to be behind us,”

July 16th, 2008 – Bernanke: (Freddie and Fannie) “…will make it through the storm”, "… in no danger of failing.","…adequately capitalized"

August 10th, 2008 – Paulson: ``We have no plans to insert money into either of those two institutions.” (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)

>>>>>