atticus, It will be very helpful if you explain why you picked those strikes in the IC (is it because of the abnormal higher vol at the short strikes or a blind pick on strikes 10-20 pts out in either direction ). What makes what you doing different than howard's method or other otm spread sellers? I can see your spreads are tighter and they are also closer to atm. So you are sacrificing probability to hit for better r/r. Is there anything else you are doing that's different in this case? thanks
Definitely VOD, using this method. This is not the FOTM/Index/1.3 sigma method of doing these things. This thread would have been a lot more interesting, had you gone down that route. If you have an IC formed tightly around the money - on both the put and call side, on a volatile underlying... one of them is guaranteed to blow up, wiping out the position. At nearly 50:50 odds, at the money... heads you lose, tails you lose. Even if the r:r is 1:1. "I want the risk reward 5:1, or less" ... what about the probability? Need to go further OTM to better the odds... something you are not doing, not really proving anything. I can risk $1 in a lottery for a reward of $1 million⦠seems safe, great risk reward!⦠but the odds arenât with you⦠at least play the odds better.
The thread is a joke. I hadn't looked at the share price of AAPL or GOOG when I posted. All I had traded in GOOG was a 5 lot in the calendar. "Gun to your head" should have been a clue. I doubt they can do any worse than random index VODs. I stand by them, random or not!
ok you fooled me! i thought you were being serious trying to do this with all the screenshots, was wondering how you would do it differently doesnt seem like there are much wiggle room to do anything.. still would be interesting to see atticus blowup or not trading this way! even if it was demo
There won't be one. The maximum loss on the AAPL iron condor is $7000 minus the initial credit and the maximum loss on the GOOG iron condor is $6000 minus the initial credit. There's $20,000 sitting in the account for these trades.