I am trying to learn more about how to trade fly from this journal. But I do need some guidance in terms of picking the right underlying and entry points? Are you guys picking the fly trades for weekly options based on (1) directional view that the stock will move to the middle strike (body) of the fly, and then we take the profits when the underlying is getting near the body? or (2) negative volatility view, i.e. enter the "Fly" when IV is high and exit when the IV turned down? or (3) expectation that the stock will stay flat for a while and we take profit after time decay? or (4) views on volatility skew that the IV of body strike will go down and the IV of wing strikes will go up? Appreciate you will shed some lights for people like me without much clue yet but really want to learn.
I run two households and one of my kids has taken an interest in maths and trading. I'd like to move entirely out of listed and trade (mostly) OTC. I agree with much of what you state and it's why I've decided to limit my posts to replies. Thanks.
Those weekly specs are almost entirely a price-bet (on touching neutrality). I rarely rate the vols on the weekly as synthetic vol impact (passage of time). You can sell vol at 35 and see the line go to 40 and still earn on the deltas. You're essentially paying for the convexity (or concavity on multiple moments) to the neutral strike.
I am not sure if this is the right place to post option ideas. If not, tell me where to post. I did not find any butterflies I like this week. Gold futures May 1450/1400/1350 that expires next Thursday is working, but it touched the mid point too early. I think IV's can easily go up in the current crazy market so I did not find any butterflies. I am in the process of trying to be able to use Excel 2013 so I can install some add ons. I would like to buy Excel 2010 but it does not seem to be available. Therefore I need flys where I think the share price will drift toward some value and IV will come down. My normal CRM butterfly is wrecked because CRM split 4 for 1. I think the split might be a way of lowering real share price so that it does not effect the constant issuing new shares marketing system. I am trying the May 40/37.50, 2 to 1 back spread at a 9 cent credit. Earning are projected for May 9. Options expire May 17. I may be too early but I think CRM could easily fall on anticipation of bad earning in a weak market. I do not understand calendars. Does anyone have suggestions for CRM calendars into earnings?
Too early? The GC fly hit a 50% gain in two days (from 10 to 15). I am no longer quoting it but IIRC it closed near 20 today (a double)? And it didn't cost you 2+20. I guess you can't please some people.
Hey Atticus just to echo the others, thank you for the info you have put on ET. I have learned a lot from reading. Good luck in your new venture!
Haven't funded yet so I thought I would add this one (perhaps last); long the VXX May10 17/19.5/22 fly from 0.98 risk (0.97 mid). Looking for 1.30 by Friday's close and 1.70 next week. Edit: I paid 0.99 risk.