I don't think Jan is overpriced in the slightest. I have to spread something against it and I don't want to trade verticals in Feb and take the event-risk.
Feb straddles will still decay and I don't think we're going to see significant stat vol into earnings. I am not making a call on Jan vol as Feb implieds will have to rise on time. Simply looking to reduce the debit on Feb vol.
this thread gets a 5 star rating : http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=250379 , god only knows for what.. and this one here is worth only one star.. you guys care to explain this phenomenon?? funny sociological event I'd say in the above mentioned thread the guy doesn't make any money which makes it even more hilarious
Paid 10.90 (80 mid) for the AAPL jan18(S)/jan25(L) 520 put calendar. 15% allocation. Looking for a VWAP over the week at 524, but went with the 20-strike to split the difference. Went ITM for microstructure as I expect we'll be above 520 (as stated). Spreading pre/post term structure. Looking for three handles on vol and essentially a pure play on distribution. Will exit on at 15 (on the cal) if touched.