atticus' single-name delta book

Out GOOG fly at 4.50 (65 mid).

Performance to date: +15.95% (Up closer to 20%, but forgot to post the VXX fly that doobs and I were trading. I will use the pre-VXX perf#).

 

post the blotter here please. Aapl forward pe of 9 vs
Amzn at 153 weird.

 

Will do. This is now a F&F account that involves some OPM.

 

Good shootin' there Ace

 

AMZN will probably see a drop on the report. Post-holiday sales were poor and the hype related to the phone is why we're up 30 on the shares. My guess is that Bezos will announce the phone on the CC, so no plans to lean on the shares.

 

Term-structure trade in AMZN. Small in the 265 calendar in Jan/Feb. Long from 8.65 (58 mid), 5%. Vols will diverge by five handles by Jan exp.

 

this is a good trade. Now you need for AMZN to annouce report date at the start of FEB exp

Then you will get some vola ramp on FEB in the next week ( before Jan exp)..a double whammy

 

It's fairly certain the report will be in the Feb. cycle. Most sources say 1/31. Vols reflect this.

 

right , 100% in Feb

But its a big diff if date is on 2/24 vs 3/7

Atty will close position on 18th. IF the report is on 24th , then FEB ramp will be completed ( or almost completed)

 

2/24?

I am seeing 1/31 for the release. I don't think it's material, but I'll defer to IV on that. There is nil-risk of Feb vols dropping from here to Jan18. I am in it small as the risk is still there due to the duration which is so heavily weighted.