the bby continued to suck throughout the day. I rolled my nflx nov gamma to dec. Vols are lower, but I still think too high. I have a dec mar calendar 1up with a lot of put skew. When you say 5 units, are you talking about 5% delta or 5% used for margin.
I took NFLX off my screen yesterday after closing it, and just quoted it. I was going to say I was hasty, but it looks as though it nearly touched 82 at the close (yesterday) and $83 today.
yeah. i was long some delta like 2x gamma (per 1%), but it switched to short delta. fortunately i had enough theta for today that i made out okay.
I've been somewhat following here, don't understand all the options speak...I had opened aapl fly friday before the fiscal cliff news came out when price was heading for $500. anyways, just wanted to post some trades, aapl Dec fly 520/530/540. I also have aapl Dec calendar $600. Aapl 675 expired worthless ( I bought that after aapl wass trading down from the 700 peak in sept about. Also bought friday FB Dec fly 20/23/25 and GLD Dec 160/165/170 Also expired worthless friday AA 10 calls, CMG 310, Goog 775. I also (for the first time) bought a /CL fly 82.5/86.5/92.5 and am concerned since I have debit (10,905) in my acct over the weekend. I was bullish on the middle east news of conflict. I just dont want to get blown out on this. I should have closed it before the close Im thinking now. Also, the Fb spread has a (1000) bp effect currently.
why such a short wing spead in the dec aapl fly? with these amount of varience in the underlying... i don't get that..
I appreciate your input - what would you have gone with? embarrassed to say I am experimenting and maybe should have been more planned. I use the tos platform and it defaulted in $5 incremements, so I went larger than that.
The range implied by stat-vol is 3x the 20-wide you're in. No matter if you're holding deltas, but you're neutral on AAPL in holding this fly. I can guarantee that the closing price of that fly will be lower on Monday (fly open on Monday > fly closing price on Monday).
umm.. when buying a fly your expressing a view on the distribution of prices.. (like any neutral strategy) if your buying a fly that has a month left to expire then throw that fly into the "risk profiler" in tos and see if your profit and loss points on both sides of the fly coincides with the range in which you think the prices will be distributed.. this is over simplifying it.. but if your take a look at that fly you can see it doesn't take much of a move in the underlying from now till then to draw you down... spend more time analyzing your trade before you put it on.. going by platform defaults in tos isn't a good idea at all.. if you have a stock thats moving 10 dollars a day on average how could you possibly contain that price inside a butterfly that is only 20 dollars from wing to wing.. think about that.. keep spreading the wings to different degrees in the profiler then take day +1 step forward...+2 day step forward etc.. You have to have a reasonable assumption of how flys change with changes in implied vol, underlying movements, and time pass at minimum.. but judging from your comments, and the position you took you need to read more..
Thanks - atticus /cd appreciate the input. That makes sense on the spread. I've got some things to work on.