atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal

Gotcha. But why not trade Dec? Vol should come in after report, albeit not as much. And you're not exposed to as much price risk.

 

I am already looking at Dec in a slightly wider fly, and working the Feb 550/650/750 fly from ~31.

 

Cool. I'm in a Dec 100-wide 760 GOOG fly from last week, fwiw.

 

if you average up a little and say they beat by more then the implied move predicts... 710/740/780.. for 1.80... 180 dollar bet with a crazy good pay off.. you could even do it with the 590/560/530 for 2 bucks putting your total bet at 3.80... vol collapses.. even if your wrong you have some time before expiration for a move in your favor.. idk just thinking

 

Sure, but you can't play it large. The allocation is relative to the payoff. Would I play the Feb fly 15x larger in notional? Yeah, if not more so.

 

31 and done on the 550-750 in Feb. Short gamma.

 

1 to 4 pay out.. cheap bet on a beat.. and a bet against it not moving at all..

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i thought you didn't play earnings..

 

Uncomfortable being short D here. But it does seem a little overextended.

EDIT: A little better now that it closed under 650. Looking for a touch of 645 tomorrow.

 

Ye of little faith! hold! You make 1.00 on a touch of 646 tomorrow.