atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal

What's your objective/forecast? I'd rather be short vega into the Oct expiry.

 

I could make arguments against both. I'd go with the Oct19/Nov 645 call calendar from mid 16s. Nov vols can't drop so it's a distribution play on Oct. Nearly free money from 16.5 to the buy (mid here).

You have no MOE in the two trades you mention. The calendar doesn't benefit from the report, so you're only gain is to gamma (pin to gamma strike). The backspread sees no prem in the 80C.

 

My view is AAPL goes out between 640 and 655 on 10/2.
Dont have the balls to short the straddle,nor do I want to sit glued to the screen and delta hedge.

The Oct/19 spread was long 1 650 call short 2 680 call...

Whats MOE?

thanks


T

 

I like that calendar. Oct fly is good also.

 

Just trade a fly in Oct as opposed to a short straddle. Nix the ratio spread.

 

Out 5.30. (5.45 mid)

 

Good trade. Are you all in on AAPL for the journal now?

 

100%.

 

Margin of error. Just do the Oct19/Nov 645 calendar from 16.50-60

 

I layered on some Oct/Nov 650 calendars (with the 645 fly) at 16.45, as I wanted a few more deltas. UL was around 643 then.