atticus' "ship it" vol trading journal

This will bite me in the ass because I'm posting it and in a little bit of a drawdown, but I have the BIDU oct dec 110 for 4 something. It's like 3.5 vols and you get earnings plus the term structure.

 

Been thinking about pulling the trigger on one... seems like it found a little bit of a bottom at 100 as it has before... risk is up to me... the Chinese are great liars so far

 

It looks decent, but why not Oct/Nov as the report falls in Nov cycle?

 

Put it on early last week. No nov options then. Generally don't like 1-2 month spreads. But it's a personal thing.

 

Bidu earnings change a lot... gotton jacked several times betting directly on earnings..... and then they changed their earnings date... still the vol did what it does in the opex it was suppose to happen in...

 

Because you want more risk........

 

Out of the Oct AAPL fly at 14.35 (in at 13.6)

 

No. I find that the two month decays more than I model whereas the longer dateds are more "predictable"

Unlikely that earnings will be before oct, but it's a risk.

 

Here it is. I am out of the 760 calendars.

 

Out of GOOG at 15.90 (16.00 mid) as we're falling too fast on index. NC on performance due to comms.