thats fair enough, like i said i dont go short. me going short is going from 200% long to 100% cash. that's the closest i get to going short. i am not trying to pick fights, i will crawl back into my hole and only post in my journal from now on. sorry again.
AAPL touches $554 at some time next week (my neutral delta). And yeah, there is money riding on that prediction.
No worries, but I think you misunderstand. I would be fine with losing the bet. I'd rather be wrong and lose then be right and fail to capitalize. I am not remotely angry about the 550 call. I am a literal-type and take considerable issue with how circled around the bet. Since there is no bet the outcome for me was irrelevant. I bet a guy on here $10k that FB would not touch 15.33 (by close of Nov 13). I spent $800 replicating the bet in listed vol and made $6k. The guy is a degen and disappeared after using the same nick on here for 11 years. I take these wagers seriously as I derive income from prop bets.
ya that sucks, but i honestly dont feel like i avoided necesarrily, i made an alternative option that i feel like was never really responded to, i didn't push it, and it fizzled out. you are right and in my mind i am also right. but its all a moot point as you've said. the ONLY reason i came and said anything is because you instantly attacked me when i posted my 550 call on the other thread and called me the "perfect fade".
Replicating bets sound like the best way to express side bets with people. ie my credit spread I pussyed out on...
I am going to change the format of the journal. I don't like risking $45k on each bet w/o any possibility of hedging, and I find myself devoting an inordinate amount of time working a small account for a journal. I will outline all trades in my single-name account once I take the loss on GOOG. All trade sizing will be expressed as units (1-100) and any variation margin will be stated as units in initial margin. My single-name account is approx. 40% of my book. I'll reset the account to 0.00%, but will mark the "ship it" closing % to the new journal trades. I'll link to this thread when I open the new journal.
I have GOOG 680 nov jan calendar like .75 to 1. Was short some gamma. Initiated a few days ago when GOOG was last at 680. What a disaster!