The bonds have to be fake. The real question is motive. Was this the typical scam that has been done in the past, or is it more involved? Were the two Japanese involved mere stooges that were set up to be caught anyway? I can see a scenario where this was meant to be a news story and the perpetrators wanted to influence the market for US Ts. The bonds didn't have to be real for them to profit - the questioning of the bonds only needed to last a few days for their ulterior motive to profit. Or it could be a country like N Korea just trying to wreak havoc on T sales by sowing doubts. I can understand the minimal news coming out of the investigation. There are likely others behind this scam and the authorities don't want them to know what info they have on them.
From what I read yesterday, probably indeed a stupid Nigeria Scam scheme. Some men (also Japanese!) in Italy betrayed (or tried it) a few wealthy people with papers probably very similar to those found here. But I haven't heard anything new yet on the issue - really, why takes this so long ?
First, I'm glad to see that you've changed your tune from insisting that these are real, to, the "bonds have to be fake." But unfortunately, your ability to reason still falls short. To plan a story to influence the t-bonds market? You do realize that not a single t-bond trader or institutional investor will take a story (or have taken this story) seriously, no? Because - once again, such bonds do not exist. Not the face value. Not the bearer form. Any more conspiracy?
I'm sure there are several parties involved that would rather see this incident swept under a rug. The Italian law enforcement agencies will likely take their sweet time on any news updates.
"Changed my tune?" Read my friggin posts, will you. You must be confusing me with someone else. Where/When did I ever insist that these are real? Please show me the post and link. In my very first post in this thread I allowed for both scenarios as possibilities. On another occasion, I have said they are likely fakes. As for my scenarios - I didn't say the perpetrators were smart or likely to succeed either. For someone as logical as you claim to be - I'll let you in on something - It's called conjecture. Unless you know the two Japanese that were caught personally, you have no certainty as to the facts of the real story either. Even if you are right and it is the typical Nigerian type scam. Spare me your "know it all attitude." At least I admit we are BOTH guessing here. You seem to know it all. You must have never lost on a trade either. Please teach us, Mr. Omniscient, I look forward to learning more from you.
There is a matter of likelihood here. You can conjecture that Bush is behind this as well, but it sure as hell isn't very likely. The problem is, your conjecture is a poor one because it's highly unlikely. It makes zero sense. For it to work, you need a bunch of conspirators who are smart enough to want to manipulate the t-bonds market, but do so in a way that no t-bond trader will believe. I don't know it all. But I do know that you don't know anything about the treasury market or international finance. Moron.
Apparently, you respond without reading my full posts. First you accused me of insisting that the bonds are real - which I never insisted were real. Now you are implying that I think the bond market is easily manipulated by this kind of false activity.. Once again, let me repeat from my prior post: "I didn't say the perpetrators were smart or likely to succeed either." You are underestimating the greed and stupidity of criminals, and yes, even some nations. It is interesting to note that these idiots were "caught" at the Swiss border. They weren't trying to push these bills onto naive businessmen in emerging countries. I could be wrong, but I think they were stooges sent to be caught. Just my opinion. Idiot
<b>U.S. Says Bonds Seized in Italy Are âClearly Fakesâ </b> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=adc1HD7mWY4A