Athlonman's EUR/USD TA Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by athlonmank8, Feb 16, 2011.

  1. This is going to be a journal to compile my E/U thoughts, charts, ideas. I will try to update at least every hour, 4th hour, and daily for each candle close. I figure I should probably make better use of this site and make it a bit more productive for myself and others.

    Anyways, enough about me. Let's get this started.

    I will focus on PA in the form of candle closes, TIME using various cycles I like to watch, patterns and targets (even though I don't typically trade them), trend, and history.

    Breakouts and candle closes will be the key signals.

    Really a big fan of using MA ribbons for trend, however TLs work well too.

    Anyways I'll get started on the Daily here.

    Simple analysis so far. I use TOS and Oanda for the daily closes. Oanda counts Sunday as a separate day so I refer to both. Candles are very bullish so far rejecting the 1.35 level 3 times. IMO we'll be seeing higher.

    Typical move up = 3 days.
    Typical move down = 4 to 5 days.
    Typical retrace has been approx 300 pips.
    Typical move up 200.

    We held the retest of the 1.34. Breakout his key here, but I have a bullish bias at the moment.

    2/25 is the estimated "push" date (analysis not shown)

    Ledges to watch are 1.38 and 1.425. Watch PA in those areas.

    We're nearing the upper part of our resistance line here @ 1.36 with 4 days off the low.
  2. Right now what stands out to me is the Oanda daily chart. Those wicks to me are bullish. If I were to look for an initial target based on risk, I would look for 1.369 as a conservative estimate. We ARE pushing it on time though.
  3. Pattern traders are looking at the breakout of a pennant here.

    Channel guys are looking at resistance.

    1hr closed above the upper TL so I've got a bullish bias.

    Shown are the retracement levels from the top. I would probably trade those from the long side on retests. Daily PP's are the dots. I took off yesterday's so it's not clogged up.

    Key 50%'s are 1.3580 which was retested and confirmed.

    3645 is the other off the top.

    1hr candle close has 5 minutes left. Bearish for candle traders currently.
  4. There. Enough of that for now. Will be posting trades a little later on. 12pm-1pm will be cycle times.
  5. 3 hours down after the reversal. offered 1.5R or just over 20 pips. Took the reversal long here on the 5 min hoping for a bounce to new highs. Stop under 659. 1.5 is usually the max you'll see.

    Fill was @ 1.35718. Looking for about 8 pips or so. Crucial we get some green on the 1hr.

    Bearish candle was confirmed @ 866. Signal was at 93.
  6. Stop moved to 69 for 3 pips risk. Out for a walk now. A little upset I missed that short :). Usually I don't trade off hours.
  7. Added more @ 756. Broke the 15 min TL and the swing high. Looking to see how this 1hr closes before I add more.
  8. cornix


    Nice journal, keep up the good job!
  9. Stopped out @ 70 and 69.
  10. Thanks!! I appreciate it. How's it going tonight?
    #10     Feb 17, 2011