ASX musings, observations, chat

Discussion in 'Trading' started by themickey, Jan 14, 2024.

  1. themickey

    themickey

    $DSPM_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_04_12_2025.png
    Crazy week on gold!
     
    #71     Apr 11, 2025
    TrailerParkTed likes this.
  2. themickey

    themickey

    URNM_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_04_12_2025.png

    Uranium sitting on support.

    SRUUF_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_04_12_2025.png
     
    #72     Apr 11, 2025
  3. themickey

    themickey

    Screenshot_20250412-050449_Firefox.jpg

    Copper doing a V.
     
    #73     Apr 11, 2025
    TrailerParkTed and nitrene like this.
  4. themickey

    themickey

    AEM_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_04_12_2025.png
    My gold stock darling.
     
    #74     Apr 11, 2025
    nitrene likes this.
  5. nitrene

    nitrene

    It seems crazy that Copper can drop 25% in 8 sessions. There must have been a lot of leveraged positions. AEM also rose 25% in 4 days. That matches the crazy VIX action as well.

    A good strategy in this market is an OTM options straddle on SPX. I wouldn't trust this market to hold any gains. I always own puts just in case.
     
    #75     Apr 11, 2025
    themickey likes this.
  6. themickey

    themickey

    Copper is a bit volatile, like everything it has its day in the sun with large swings.
    Here is QQQ (black) VS HGY00 (copper cash, blue line) going back to the year 2000 (25 year lookback)

    QQQ_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_04_12_2025.png
     
    #76     Apr 11, 2025
  7. themickey

    themickey

    Nearly all base metal commodities have large bull and bear swings.
    FMG.AX Fortesque (iron ore) a great example.
    FMG.AX_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_04_12_2025.png
    FMG.AX percentage change.
     
    #77     Apr 11, 2025
  8. All great charts and insights, thank Mickey!
     
    #78     Apr 11, 2025
    themickey likes this.
  9. tony.m

    tony.m

    @themickey do you invest in commodities long term ?
     
    #79     Apr 13, 2025
  10. themickey

    themickey

    It's not my intention to do that.
    There's a problem I've had with myself in the past and that's believing in a company - it's a big mistake!
    But it's very easy to get suckered into believing a company story.

    There's another problem, not having a stoploss system to believe in.
    Stoploss systems are very difficult to get your head around, 'until you know'.
    If you don't know, then you don't know, and when you do know then you've won the battle.
    And that goes also for trading in general, when you don't know it is tough, when you do know it gets boring.

    But I digress, I tend to hold until the sector it's in begins to collapse or the stock begins to collapse.
    The collapse can be a dummy and the collapse is usually not after a large drawdown so if its dummy you can (a) either get back in (b) look elsewhere for new opportunities.
    My stoploss system is quite tight and its logical, ie doesn't run off indicators but runs off timing.

    So holding commodities long term, it depends.
    Uranium and copper I thought would be long term trends and they weren't.
    Likewise Bitcoin.

    Gold I thought would be short term and its tending to go longterm.
    Luckily my wife brow beated me into buying two gold penny stocks which I sunk 10's of thousands of dollars into and they are going very well.
    The thing is, my wife also did likewise, buying the same stocks....... that's what ya get when ya don't repent. :)
     
    #80     Apr 13, 2025
    tony.m likes this.