Asian Financial Crisis Part 2: China's Debt Bomb

Discussion in 'Economics' started by schizo, Jan 7, 2024.

  1. "our sales will likely be down in the next quarter because of the great economy and its bright outlook"... Lol
     
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2024
    #91     Jan 31, 2024
    Picaso likes this.
  2. Picaso

    Picaso

    #92     Jan 31, 2024
  3. mervyn

    mervyn

    they are in the midst of transitioning from real estate growth driver to something that is uncertain, such as auto, semi, biotech, green tech. csi300 is back to pre trade war level. sse listed companies from the gfc days 800+ to over 2000+ companies today,

    it would be easier to just print money but they are trying to handle the real estate first and equally invest trillions in future tech, just have to wait and see.
     
    #93     Jan 31, 2024
    Quanto likes this.
  4. schizo

    schizo

    Nothing new but an orderly selloff so far.

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    #94     Jan 31, 2024
    Picaso likes this.
  5. schizo

    schizo

    upload_2024-2-5_21-3-20.png

    Angry Chinese take to US Embassy’s social media account to vent about plunging stock market
    Feb. 4th, 2024


    [​IMG] cnn.com

    Tens of thousands ofpeople in China are flocking to an unusual venue to vent their outrage about the continuing meltdown in the country’s stock market.

    They’ve been posting comments on a Chinese-language social media account of the US Embassy in Beijing expressing anger and frustration with the market rout.

    Mainland Chinese markets slumped again Monday after their worst week in years. More than 1,800 stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, accounting for a third of all stocks listed in China, slumped more than 10%.

    A post by the embassy Friday on Weibo about protecting wild giraffes in Africa attracted more than 160,000 comments, many of which were unrelated to animal protection.

    “The US government, please help Chinese stock investors,” a user wrote in a repost of the article.

    Many posts later appeared to be scrubbed by censors. Chinese authorities have recently stepped up their censorship of criticism about the stalled economy and market chaos.

    CNN has reached out to the US Embassy for comment.

    On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped for a sixth straight session, down 1% and hitting its lowest close in four years. Last week, the index fell 6.2% in its biggest weekly loss since October 2018.

    The Shenzhen Component Index swung wildly between gains and losses during the trading day, before ending down 1.1%. The index slid 8.1% last week.

    Internet users likely chose the US Embassy’s Weibo page to protest because other outlets have been closed off. For example, China’s market regulators have disabled the comments sections of their own social media accounts.

    Since late last year, some of China’s most prominent analysts have been subjected to social media restrictions that appear designed to reduce their ability to comment on the country’s economic problems.

    To get around the censorship, some social media users resorted over the weekend to euphemisms and jokes.

    ”Arise! All giraffes who refuse to be slaves,” one user said in a repost of the US Embassy’s animal story. The phrase draws from the first line of China’s national anthem: “Arise! All who refuse to be slaves!”

    “The entire giraffe community is filled with optimism,” another user said, poking fun at an article published Friday by the state-owned People’s Daily newspaper about the visit of a German communist politician under the headline “the whole country is filled with optimism.”

    Monday’smarket losses suggest investors remain unconvinced by Chinese regulators’ repeated pledges to bolster confidence. On Sunday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission vowed again to prevent “abnormal fluctuations” in the stock market. But it did not offer any details about how it would do so.

    “Despite attempts by state authorities to stabilize the market, investor sentiment remains fragile, reflecting deep-seated concerns about the reliability of government policies and the regulatory framework,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

    Further, “the uncertainty surrounding Chinese markets and trade relations is compounded by the possibility of increasing tariffs on China, as proposed by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump,” he added.

    In an extraordinary message, a listed company appears to be suggesting that Chinese investors take a break from the stock market — if only for a few daysover the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday.

    “Life is not only about the stock market, but also about parents, spouses, children and friends. [We] recommend that investors temporarily leave the stock market, let go of their obsessions, change their mood, and welcome the New Year with a relaxed and peaceful mood,” Hangzhou Yitong New Materials said in a comment posted in response to a question from investors in an online forum run by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

    The Shenzhen-listed company, which produces metal products, has lost 42% of its stock market value since the start of this year.

    Altogether, about $6.1 trillion in market value has been wiped from the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets since their recent peaks in February 2021, according to a CNN calculation based on data from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong exchanges.

    A record downturn in its dominant real estate market, high youth unemployment, deflation and a rapidly falling birthrate are just some of the issues ailing the world’s second-largest economy.
     
    #95     Feb 6, 2024
  6. schizo

    schizo

    Could that be the reason for today's rally?

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    #96     Feb 6, 2024
  7. Picaso

    Picaso

    Chinese New Year coming up! Year of the Dragon! Buy, buy, buy!

    Also, snow(balls) + derivatives = what could go wrong?

    Do let me know if you go long :D
     
    #97     Feb 6, 2024
  8. maxinger

    maxinger

    I guess you have to top up your trading account repeatedly.
     
    #98     Feb 6, 2024
  9. mervyn

    mervyn

    oh well, it was a prank but the mainstream media took it seriously. also i read there were lot of margin calls to drive down the market.

    i am long kweb and nio, for the record.
     
    #99     Feb 6, 2024
  10. Picaso

    Picaso

    @schizo What's your take on this market? Fundamentally I don't see how it can go (significantly) up, but if volatility is highest at the turn of trends (and lowest during continuations), if this pops out of this range, I might dip my toes in the water (long).

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    #100     Feb 8, 2024