Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stonedinvestor, Oct 7, 2010.

  1. Hey folks stoney here. I've been working hard the past few days trying to isolate a great trade for the current environment. In my view this is a dangerous time to buy stocks that have a lot of built in expectations. Rather one must find an early cyclical type play that is not hitting the cover off the ball. That's the type of stock that will really move from here. But which one? I've been tracking a whole bunch of ideas and the name that I finally settled upon today was Ashland. (ASH)

    One thing I like about the name is when you look at news you will see two separate dates in Sept when estimates were lowered on the stock. On the first (sept 16)you can see a dive down and then on the second (21) no reaction and now the stk is higher. That's a sweet set up. As well Ashland is the type of stock that will be mass bought by hedgies and index'es in the near future.

    I could of bought this stock at $49 but with several important layers of resistance/ support at the $50 area and because I think the trade can make so much I waited until I was sure we weren't just hitting our heads against a wall. Today's action has convinced me that the Ashland move is for real; With a 200 day average $50.00 & 100 day $51.00 this now sets up great. Use something beneath the 20 day as a stop if you have to ($48.50) you can all ride this global cyclical story with me to $70 plus.

    I did run the idea by my guys at the hedge fund and they like the name too. They said it Should move in sync with the economy and with results that look to have bottomed. And look for spinouts next year in particular Valvoline....

    Hello folks! that's the type of stuff I eat up! I had no idea that was in the cards. That will increase earnings and give the name a higher multiple. Ok Full position ASH @ $50.75.

    Other ideas:

    My favorite ideas now come with insider selling which I don't like.

    a) CATM- Cardtronics I think is the name. These guys are ATM's and that side of the bank world they do transactions and for whatever reason the stock is really hot.
    @$15.50. watching. would be interested @$14.75.

    b) ZAGG. This is my favorite $5 play now out side of QUIK which we already own.
    They do metal protective coverings for Apple products.

    c) ASYS- This stock is ahead of itself but it's a very good stock. They do semi stuff for solar stuff which sounds good to me. A IBD darling yet in a fairly firm and steep uptrend. We need a pull in here.

    In general it's less go go stocks and more thoughtful investing. I recently bought TAP Coors bear as well. ~stoney
  2. Good Morning. It's Friday Jobs day. If we get a decent number we are going to have to go with speculative earnings powerhouse ZAGG. Stay tuned.

    Yesterday's buy of ASHLAND worked out great! Super close-- thought we might of gotten a few stars for that but I understand. lets wait for the usual $10 per share gain before throwing around any stars but I'll expect them then.

    I have a very large and scary position in DCTH, DELCATH. The stock has not been moving and I knew that to be the case... the idea of the purchase originally was to get beta into accounts in a name that was fixed due to an upcoming event-- so if the market corrected 5% we would still be in the game.... The problem is, if the market decides to take off now-- here we are with some dead money. Anyway I was heartened to see some BULLISH options trading yesterday in the name-- 9181 calls 6 X the daily average maybe that will lead to something. ~stoney
  3. In research you look down every avenue. And the ZAGG protection products made from high tech military blah blah really reads well. Then I went to Best Buy's web sites and read the reviews. Moving on.

    Folks I took a 1/2 position in a run away gas stock. Sorry! I've been charting MMR for over two weeks and it has not backed off one iota. This is a shallow water gas play so there is something much bigger and probably deeper in the news. Some Call Contracts that expire in a few days are being bought like mad. It sure feels like news is right around the corner. Will it be a sell the news type affair and I get burned? Possibly. Is this a some massive story? Maybe. If you like a touch of risk try on a half hat of MMR. @ $18.25

    10,000 Oct $21 calls purchased today I think 7-Oct-10
    Out of the money by $3 and only 1 week from expiration ---

    Story- This is from a blog site devoted to MMR, I believe it.

    One Small Gulf Of Mexico Company – 100 Tcf Of Reserve Potential (Not A Typo)

    I don’t know if you have heard of McMoRan Exploration. If you haven’t you should look into it a little bit just to learn about its legendary leader “Jim Bob” Moffet.

    Jim Bob is a legendary wildcatter. At age 70 he is still out hunting elephants while most oil companies have become much more institutionalized managers of risk. Moffet’s first big score was with MMR’s sister company Freeport McMoRan where Jim Bob helped discover the huge Grasberg Mine in Indonesia.

    Now Moffet is out hunting his elephants on the Gulf of Mexico Shelf where all of the elephants were already supposedly found.

    Jim Bob changed that late last year.

    “The Davy Jones prospect discovery well, operated by McMoRan in 20 feet of water off the coast of Louisiana at South Marsh Island Block 230, has been logged with pipe-conveyed wireline logs to 28,530. A total of 200 net feet of hydrocarbon bearing sands has been identified in six zones of the Wilcox section of the Eocene-Paleocene.

    The well, which was a re-entry of a previously abandoned wellbore, is reported to have tapped into an estimated two to six Tcfe of reserves, according to some industry analysts.

    Upon confirmation via development, Davy Jones is positioned to be one of the largest discoveries on the GOM shelf in decades. The scuttlebutt in the industry is that it has the potential to open up a whole new exploration frontier in the ultra-deep (>25,000 feet) horizons on the shallow water shelf.

    To date, only seven wells have been drilled to a TVD of 25,000-plus feet in this region, according to veteran geologist and explorer James R. “Jim Bob” Moffett, co-chairman of the board at McMoRan.

    The outgoing, often amusingly salty-tongued Moffett long has been recognized as an expert in the onshore Miocene. Known for its prolific production in this region, the Miocene doesn’t stop at the shoreline – and go-getter Moffett saw good reason to venture out into the shallow water Gulf to explore for deep gas.

    A notable result of this effort is McMoRan’s Flatrock Field at South Marsh Island Block 212, where six wells currently produce over 300 MMcfe/d gross from the Miocene, with over 55 MMcfe/d net to McMoRan.

    Given the expertise Moffett has honed over the years – sometimes relying on “Jimbob-ology” along with textbook geology – and the company’s success playing the shallow water deep gas, taking on the challenge of exploring the ultra-deep horizons was a kind of no-brainer.

    McMoRan’s deep gas play focuses on large structures above the salt weld, i.e. listric fault, in the deep Miocene. The ultra-deep play targets objectives below the salt weld in the Miocene and older sections that have been correlated to those productive sections seen in deepwater discoveries by other companies.”

    Even though the GOM is one of the most mature provinces in the United States, both the deep gas and the ultra-deep gas plays are vastly unexplored.

    According to Jim Bob

    “What we think Davy Jones and Blackbeard and deep drilling have done out there is to change the whole shelf topography and redefine the subsurface geologic landscape below 20,000 feet on the Gulf shelf,” Moffett said. “No one thought we’d be sitting here with this kind of opportunity.

    “One of the biggest misconceptions we have is people think the shelf and the deepwater are two different geological provinces,” he added. “They’re not geological provinces, they’re engineering provinces.

    “On the shelf you have standard platforms and drill standard wells, and they have construction around and go to a common facility,” Moffett noted. “Once you get below the salt weld, it’s all one basin.”

    “But the data received to date from Davy Jones and Blackbeard West confirm McMoRan’s original modeling,” he emphasized, “which correlates the objective sections on the shelf below the salt weld in the Miocene and older age sections to those productive sections in deepwater discoveries made by others.”

    Davy Jones and Blackbeard likely are only the tip of the proverbial iceberg.

    McMoRan is one of the largest acreage holders on the GOM shelf and onshore in the Gulf Coast area and has rights to approximately a million gross acres – including 150,000 associated with the ultra deep gas play below the salt weld.

    Recently McMoRan has estimated that the various plays amount to 100 TCF of potential reserves. Not all of it is net to MMR but they hold the largest piece.

    To help you estimate what something this big might be worth MMR’s recent presentation laid out some numbers:

    The basic numbers provided are that each 2 tcfe net to MMR is worth as follows:

    At $4/mcf = $1.8 billion

    At $5/mcf = $2.9 billion

    At $6/mcf = $3.9 billion

    So just for kicks if this turns into 10 tcfe net to MMR and natural gas averages $5/mcf in the future the value of these deep plays would be 5 x $2.9 billion = almost $15 billion. The current market cap of MMR is under $2 billion.

    MMR is currently drilling a prospect at Blackbeard East.

    >>>> Alright so the guy that has continually made you all rich, PPO,SPRD,UA AND SO MANY MORE I COULD GO ON AND ON... What of our little RARE EARTH MINE LYNAS? Remember that @$12.00? Sure looks better knocking on $15.00 doesn't it!!!! I'm not going to do this to you all again but go through the posts I've given you all some really good calls, anyway that guy is back and he's left you now with 5 more-
    ASH & MMR & QUIK & GSM & TAP

    These names are more conservative. You know what to do. ~ stoney

    ps: Somehow I'm still in Westport lack of communication with my guys. Just letting you know.

    Some of you may remember from the Welcome Back thread that the General was one of two stock given to me by the hedge fund not my own research. The other one was LUB and that worked out but I went with the one with the larger long term potential The General. I bought in at $3 something so keep that in mind as it is just now crossing $4. But I am committed to a $6 PT so I don't feel bad alerting you all (again) about this name.

    The news today is big and happily it's from China!

    General Moly announces Hanlong's receipt of key Chinese governmental approval; Hanlong will increase its interest in General Moly to 25% on a fully-diluted basis (3.88 +0.09)
    Co announced that the Company has been informed by Sichuan Hanlong Group that it has received formal approval from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission to invest in General Moly as a component of an overall structure to fully finance General Moly's 80%-owned share of the Mt. Hope project. Under the agreement with Hanlong, Hanlong will increase its interest in General Moly to 25% on a fully-diluted basis, through an additional $40 million equity investment, following General Moly's receipt of its Record of Decision (ROD) and Hanlong's delivery of a $665 million Hanlong-guaranteed loan to be sourced from a Prime Chinese Bank.

    oh Yea! Bom Bom. Oh yea.....

    You may remember the knock on GMO is that their element is not a RARE ELEMENT but it is a key element non the less. Molybdenum is a strategic minor metal, and remains an intriguing investment opportunity. The base metal is used primarily by the steel industry due to its ability to fight off corrosion and heat.

    Molybdenum has the sixth-highest melting point of any key element and is considered one of the least corrosive metals. Because of this durability, it is consistently in high demand from industries such as energy and medical equipment.

    General Moly (GMO) has interest in two molybdenum mines in Nevada, and once the production gets to full output, will become the primary producer of the metal. Because the company is in the exploration stage, it continues to lose money on a regular basis... Now China is on board! Don't Be Left Out Folks!!!! ~ stoney
  6. ASHLAND IGNITION ON!!!!!!! :)


    Real Time53.67 1.86 (3.59%) 12:18PM EDT
    Ashland Inc. (NEW) Common Stock (NYSE: ASH)

    That's $3 in a day $3 freakin thousand dollars and rocketing- all the hedgies will be buying; the perfect idea for today's environment... six days of research waking up at 5:00 every morning... LAYERS OF SUPPORT.... room to run bad news factored in, only up from here & not one comment or STAR on this thread.

    That's not enough. I give out all by new best ideas. I give I give I give.

    I explain I predict I change styles I include everyone. Where is the Love? ~stoney


    On June 25th shortly after my 46th year birthday I decided to Welcome Myself back to ET in a now famous thread that has been reposted on many investing sites on the internet. In that thread and since in a few more I have laid bare my soul, I have told you of my great market adventures and I have shared for free my investing moves.

    Some of you know me from the net'. Some of you know me from ET in prior years. Some of you listened. The very reason I named my investing side the stonedinvestor and named my newsletter in the old days stonedinvesting was because no one else would. Who would think those two worlds mesh so well. The idea was to show bankers their folly to run a dozen great ideas by them and watch them freeze because of a name-- they just didn't want to act on an idea by the stonedinvestor... and so I have been making people pay and making them hate themselves for not listening for years and years and years. It never gets old. That I have taken the germ of an idea and planted it and reaped the wonderful bounty of success, through careful pruning and allotment of sun that should not go unnoticed by the scientists and economists and market watchers of the world. Does smoking a natural plant take away one's cynical nature? Does it let one believe again? Does it hyper connect you to the inner machinations of the stock market? Can you become hard wired that way?

    Anyway. Since arriving back at ET the following has happened. Mr Jack Hershey attacked me and wished me ill health in a time in which I actually have some of that. I lured him into a stock picking contest and cleaned his clock. I have in each thread tried to show THE PROCESS... the thinking the looping the coming back to ideas the way an investor completes his task. How to start a list of ideas, to chart them when to act, how to line up a series of stock significant events in your favor.

    I have always stuck to this one creed: Every Thread should have an great actionable idea, the readers should not only be entertained, informed and enlightened but enriched. And I have done that. I checked that PPO entry price it was $24.50! I gave you out my power paper play UFS TWICE for ten dollar gains!
    LLEN, VALE, FNSR, all 20% plus gains. IOC just $20 a share there for you all and tiny offshoot HDY 100 plus %. I have as usual brought to you the most interesting stocks! This is because investing is always a BLEND. A blend of technical AND fundamental. When I run into these snot nosed hedgies who don't even know what the company they are buying does-- daytraders too -- I have zero respect for them. For me the essence of the idea always comes first, I like a good story that I can tell. If I tell it just to my family and friends and you all, so be it.

    Anyway one of those great stories is DELCATH and at the end of last week some buyout rumors came into the name. All of you are in at $7.50 and we went up a buck on these BMY RUMORS OF A BUYOUT FOR $15.00. In my own view, BMY would be very lucky to pick up this name for $15.00. After FDA approval the stock will be there naturally, where's the post FDA premium? I guess that's why the rumor is happening now. AKRX was another happy find for you all $3.00 to $4.00 creeping along. UA! A great retail stock for us FMCN a big China winner, CAVM more money in the bank, PTV gave you a buyout within 3 days of investment (small premium though)

    The BIGGER THINKING is always where I excel and in this rare earth area I put in a lot of work, I uncovered a mine no one knows about and I got this great stock that trades infrequently Lynas- gave it to you all at $12.00 and how can you not come up with $12 grand for an investment-- that was a beautiful price point and it just ticks over every day like an ice cream store counter now at $15.85!!! And how many thank you's do you think I got?

    Yup a freakin 36 emails for all this work. What are they 90,000 viewers here?? Something like that. General Moly... another big story all of these given in REAL TIME BY THE WAY!!! I contact my guy and then I start typing; often you have a better cost basis than me!!!! Why Do I Do This? For 36 people to say " Thanks!"

    I am told we work in the internet age for stars.

    Anyway here are the ideas that did not work out--

    ZIOP Still a big believer and a very big holder....
    REFR in and out fractional loss
    DAKT dito lost 20 cents a share.
    SMOD bigger loss badly played- Paid $6.50 at the high arc bad move sold at $5.75 it's back to $6.50 without me.
    HTM a litle geo thermal play got spanked for near 20%
    MATK in at $25.00 out at near $24.00
    CROX stopped out on the way down but made more on the way back up.

    .... Those of you that like to analyze things will notice the losses are very small and the wins are very large. Also all the losses are on rather far flung ideas and 4 letter stocks.

    ... Where does all of this leave us now? Well 36 of you are far richer, those old timers that knew me from past posts here, they jumped right back on board and the rest of you... just sit there and deny me stars.

    Ashland* is a state of mind. ~stoney

    Folks I'm in a nippy mood again today (I think I smell a reversal coming) and I took it out on Polypore PPO. Generally, when I scan an account and find an outsized gain compared to the rest I just sell it-- so today we book near TEN GRAND and take PPO off the board at $33.53. We got you in at $24.00 and some swing traders in at $29.00 but perhaps more importantly we got you out.

    Some call this tactic selling your winners.

    Anyway, I'm pissed as heck I didn't get in on SIGA, I've known and followed and owned that stock on and off again for years and years--- they finally got their contract. Good for them, it's a big one. i owned SIGA for most of last year waiting for it...

    A stock I'm considering is COGO. Another name I know well. watching that $7.50 area, this stock has lagged despite some good trends in it's industry. Describing what COGO does in China is near impossible. Look up their profile, they have some news on tablets today (20 new customers) They beat earnings last time, they report NOV 4, it's a pretty tight trade. Price targets are up around $10.00, the stk is $7.30. Money flow and OBV and MACD all look good volume is eh.... timing is oh so important, so the question is will we get a better chance to buy the stock before Nov 4....

    DCTH UPDATE* Now up 17% in short time.

    QUIK UPDATE* Now up 12% in a short time

    AVNR UP 10% lagging.... need a spark here!

    ASHLAND UPDATE* Holding up $3 plus. Earn Oct 26!

  9. Ok I get it. I get it. You got me on the ledge and you want to see me jump... you want to see me ABOSLUTELY LOSE MY F ING MIND BECAUSE I AINT GOT NO STARS!! I can't even say it! Ok fine.. I get it. This is a test.

    I have never had a thread un starred in my ET history, each and every one had a whole bunch of them yellow babies... we don't get paid folks!! In case you hadn't noticed since this internet was invented no one gets paid for ideas anymore... are you gonna give me $10.00 for my newsletter ??(that's all it was in the day imagine that).
    ayyyy. Now they tell me you work hard you share all your ideas for free and you get these FREAKIN stars.

    Now after that it gets fuzzy-- some folks have said you resell these stars on Japanese game sites but that's way above my gaming ability being Wii-only centric. The pressure is building. Now the complacency of the market the VIX going down and gold going up, it's finally unnerved me. Stocks I sell- they are dying on the vine so the market is not getting away from us, in fact just the opposite, the market is telling us something. The averages so weighted by the Apple's & CAT's, they will say one thing while the real breadth numbers will say something else... rather than new highs expanding they will be shrinking... that's the gut call as I sit stoned and watch the symbols go bye.

    Alright so CAN I HOLD ON TO A BIT OF CASH FOLKS WITHOUT CHASING MR MARKET!! That's the real question here. And you better hope I can because then the market will continue to go up... the moment I buy a stock from here on out it's correction time... mark my words.

    ok, I can't come up with a watch list I'm FREAKING OUT... I won't lie. It's a bit like when you can't write something which unfortunately I do as well. They call it WRITERS BLOCK. In investing it might just be anticipating a correction.

    The only idea I'm tinkering with is SGEN Seattle Genetics a great biotech that's trending strong that would just be a 2x market direction type trade... Got a hunch someone is going to buy them too. Gates was big in this name years ago.
    I might kick the casinos around, their foot traffic is up... smart money might buy banks here, the only asset class not to go up . I can't bring myself to do that. COGO I told you about...

    This is pathetic.

    well we are all farmers aren't we? Planters? We have laid so many fine seeds we can just sit back and watch them grow and prune them and take them out of the field. We don't ALWAYS have to be doing something new in an almost ADDICTED way...

    Let's FOCUS ON TWO RECENT CALLS... This Lynas LYSDY the ice cream ticker stock... it ticked again! $16.45 now! THAT'S RARE EARTH BABY! With a 52 week high at $29.00 and 36 of you in at $12.00!!! I can't find very much at all about the mine but my guys did get me something it's sort of coded in such a way I can't copy it so let me continue to work on transcribing the ideas. Sometimes you can put these pdfs into emails and then back out again to ET but I probably shouldn't of said that. Anyway Guys: $12,000 became $16,000 plus in a week simply because i worked my ass off to find that idea.

    Global Specialty Minerals- GSM- I forget the cost basis here I want to say we bought it late maybe $13.00 I'll double check but check that daily chart out! primed to roar and knocking on $16.00!- This was a big conservative call that I gave out... if you think that kind of move conservative... That's the great part aBOUT THE SI SYSTEM- one always finds the greatest example of a stonedinvesting stock within a specific sector... there's always one.

    GBX is one of those in the rail cars but I can't chase that one here. GBX has been in my last two baths (along with some Lush products!) But too far gone now.

    MMR looks good still! We bought that last week up almost a buck good sector to be in. Ideally I want $10.00 out of Ashland through their earnings and a big hit with DCTH and I'll take my toys and go home. For a month or two.

    Folks you decide. You tell me the other thread on this site that has this many clear actionable ideas in real time explained flushed out with research and personal reflections; combined with general market forecasts and casual observations about food and film... you find me that with an EELS review thrown in to boot...

    Why should I have to beg for internet pay?
    Have I not earned your STARS? ~stoney
  10. Good Morning.

    The darkness still pervades my soul. My bedroom cable box is completely frenetic this morning and there will be no TV back there for a while.

    To make matters worse a couple stocks that I watch took off yesterday. You know the situation, I have raised some cash and wish to hold onto it for a clear earnings play or for a small market retreat... can I stay on the sidelines??

    Stk #1 is ZAGG. I don't feel great about this stock because I have researched the customer reviews of their ultra thin shield and everyone seems to hate the product. Perhaps someone in the ET community can help me with this, essentially this is an ultra thin annoying plasticy film that slides over your I phone or tablet and then if you do it right stops the finger smudges, most need an employee of Best Buy to pull off the process of protecting their Apple product. The company sells a spray and gunk to redo the process if you screw up-- it sounds like a logistical nightmare... However never underestimate man's penchant for new stuff, rather than a bulky rubber protector a high tech film substitute will have it's fans and according to ZAGG's press release a whole lot of fans.

    Still the process of getting this stock up irks me. YesterDay the stock dived 7% to $5.12 and looked like a piece of S and made me feel good about choosing to not go with the name despite what the technicals were telling me. Then in afterhours the companies management raised guidance. That kind of proactive response from management is always appreciated when you own the stock but when you don't such timely intervention looks suspicious. After Hours? Up 28%. Stoney is left stewing.

    UPDATE1-Zagg sees Q3 rev above Street; sees robust year

    Tweet This crap
    Share on LinkedIn whatever the hell that is
    Share on Facebook wouldn't you rather hunjt down an old squeeze?
    Zagg Incorporated
    12:00am EDT

    Wed Oct 13, 2010 6:12pm EDT

    * Sees Q3 rev above $22 mln vs est. $14.6 mln

    * Sees 2010 rev growth of 70 percent

    * Shares up 28 percent in extended trade

    Oct 13 (Reuters) - Mobile accessories maker Zagg Inc (ZAGG.O) expects quarterly revenue to beat estimates and sees a robust full year, helped by stronger demand for its invisibleSHIELd, protective cover for mobiles devices.

    "Preliminary results for the quarter have exceeded our expectations due to the timing of distribution agreements and new mobile devices sales surpassing industry expectations," Chief Executive Robert Pedersen II said in a statement.

    For the third quarter, the company expects revenue to exceed $22 million.

    Analysts on average expect revenue of $14.6 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S....

    That's one headache. Next up underwater 3D Seismic mappers GOK- I've been watching this stock since it balsted off it's low on a huge contract. It's been dead since yesterday in which it had a big day. This stock does not check out well at all in the fundamental camp and only has a float of 10 mil. Vol is not great either, it is above it's 50 and 200 day. Worth a watch today.

    Watch List-

    ZAGG // GOK // CATM // ASYS // COGO // ~stoney
    #10     Oct 14, 2010