ASF - Big Earnings Winner on "Sneaky Call Buyer"

Discussion in 'Options' started by livevol_ophir, May 3, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    <b>* UPDATE</b>
    ASF is trading 26.60, up 20% ($4.46) on earnings released this morning.

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    I first wrote about ASF on Tuesday of last week as a call buyer "snuck" in with small orders but several times. You can read the first blog here below.
    <b>The first blog: <a href="">Click Here ("Sneaky Call Buyer")</a></b>

    The May 25 calls were the action, about 4,500 were purchased for $0.45. The Options Tab snap is included (in the article).

    You can see the May 25 calls are now worth $1.90. That's 4500x100x($1.90-$0.45) = $834,750 dollar win on a ~$200,000 bet.

    One more interesting note: The Charts Tab (6 months) is below (in the article). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30&#8482 - red vs HV20&#8482 - blue). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30&#8482 vs. the HV20&#8482 vol difference.

    You can see for the last two consecutive earnings this stock has gapped considerably (-25% two cycles ago, and +20% this time). It might be time to write this one down and see if the order flow gives a similar tip next time.

    This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

    Details, trades, vols, skews, charts here: