Here is one article from one of my favorite sites. http://www.dshort.com/articles/2009/january-in-down-years.html If my calculations are correct, the chance of the rest of the year being down is 63%. 41 Januarys out of 137 that were down. 26 Januarys that resulted in a down year.
There is something interesting that I want to point out. The top 11 worst years out of 137 were: 1931 -45% (the year that followed was negative) 2008 -40% (???) 1937 -35% (the year that followed was positive) 1907 -33% (the year that followed was positive) 1917 -30% (the year that followed was positive) 1974 -29% (the year that followed was positive) 1930 -27% (the year that followed was negative) 1920 -23% (the year that followed was positive) 2002 -21% (the year that followed was positive) 1973 -19% (the year that followed was negative) 1932 -19% (the year that followed was positive) When the indexes took a dump big, 70% of the time the next year was positive. Out of the 50 down years, there were only 11 instances where the next year was negative. So using all of the data accumulated, then there is a 22% chance that 2009 will be a down year. Take head, though, that out of those 11 instances when the next year was down there were financial panics and catastophes that were somewhat similiar to today's times and fundamentals. For example, late 1800s, the Great Depression, World War II, the 70s, and the tech crash were all periods where there were consecutive down years. While I would like to think 2009 will be an up year, the time period we are in now has similiarities to the other periods noted. The other periods were times of great uncertainty and the events justified the action in the stock market. I think the events justify the current market today.