As If Bear Has Not Been Screwed Enough - Now They Want To Castrate Him!

good point. one can always wait for a better setup but once you see the one that is good enough you need to take it otherwise the money sits idle.

 

spy etf up 16 out of the last 18 days.

today makes it 10 days in a row!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Imagine if the s$p was down 10 days in a row, they would probably issue another trillion dollar stimulus package!!!!


Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
10-Mar-10 114.51 115.28 114.41 114.97 185,855,200 114.97
9-Mar-10 113.93 114.99 113.87 114.46 154,438,200 114.46
8-Mar-10 114.26 114.52 114.07 114.27 114,537,200 114.27
5-Mar-10 113.37 114.34 113.10 114.25 176,053,800 114.25
4-Mar-10 112.45 112.80 112.03 112.64 135,539,800 112.64
3-Mar-10 112.49 112.97 112.02 112.30 150,635,700 112.30
2-Mar-10 112.37 112.74 112.00 112.20 160,937,400 112.20
1-Mar-10 111.20 112.00 111.17 111.89 147,559,000 111.89
26-Feb-10 110.77 111.12 110.11 110.74 173,453,100 110.74
25-Feb-10 109.24 110.75 108.94 110.67 259,105,900 110.67
24-Feb-10 110.14 111.00 109.86 110.82 176,225,600 110.82
23-Feb-10 110.86 111.20 109.52 109.81 207,034,900 109.81
22-Feb-10 111.55 111.58 110.83 111.16 132,182,700 111.16
19-Feb-10 110.62 111.57 110.36 111.14 215,599,300 111.14
18-Feb-10 110.08 111.14 110.04 110.91 193,068,400 110.91
17-Feb-10 110.27 110.41 109.74 110.26 168,627,700 110.26
16-Feb-10 108.86 109.85 107.82 109.74 157,023,900 109.74
12-Feb-10 106.99 108.10 106.51 108.04 304,344,600 108.04

 

wake me up with we are up 16 days in a row

 

So you are no longer short?

 

i am short and i am in pain . i will try to hang in there. the charts tell me the odds are very good for a sell-off. what's is happening may be actually consistent with the above study. it looks like one should have a short bias for a month, but the payoff may not be huge and not necessarily instantaneous. i note that the above study only looks at one indicator: call-put ratio. other charts only strengthen it i believe.

 

if the vix hits a low and then another low the next day, how many data points go into the chart? Trying to understand the significance of the study...

 

I am surprised by the persistence of the indicator. Without looking I would have expected a peak at 5 days. Isn't it suspect that a put call on any one day can predict 25 days out?

 

you meant call/put, not vix. i would guess that both data points have to go in. it is not just call/put hitting 40day low, he also dictates SPX not to rise too much, hence, "unjustifiable call/put".

maybe it is surprising, maybe it is not. as i said in the beginning of this thread, recently many times VIX would year low and SPY would put in a top that is good for a month or so. substitute VIX for call/put in the above study and you may start believing in the persistence of his signal.

 

Shorty, the Noah of ET. Keep building the Ark my son, some day it will rain and those mocking your prediction shall be swept away.

White Dove out

 

i don't know if i should laugh or cry. but i guess nobody said it should be easy.