As CL Nears $80 - Buy or Sell?

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by aeliodon, Sep 11, 2007.

  1. Well today OPEC increased production for the first time in two years. Pretty bearish fundemental news and it was good for a 50 cent selloff after the announcement. Then it went right back up.
    It seems CL is moving more on Gold and Dollar correlation rather than on the underlying fundementals. I do sense that shorting the 80 mark would be a nice trade even if its just a scalp. Everything hinges on the rate cut now or lack thereoff and Ben isn't really being transparent and giving guidence despite all his talk of transparency.
    I hope CL blasts past $80 going into the fed meeting so that Ben understands that if he wants to inflate his way out of a minor recession - we could have $100 CL really soon, fundementals notwithstanding.
  2. dhpar


  3. I am starting doubts about qm; one day blow up pipeline; the other day increasing production. What a show down, it is a lot better than Hollywood action movies.

    I want to trust governments over terrorists; however; the facts of matter is governments just keep dispointting all investors.
  4. dhpar


    it is not about terrorists (only) - is there a bigger threat than 2 years ago when we had a lot of attacks? Hell NO. But oil keeps going up.
    there is no more supply of oil - only more demand. And on top of that there is more money supply. simple as that.
  5. I am starting doubts about qm; [/QUOTE]

    My sentiments exactly. Either oil traders are fixated on something new or the price is being manupulated here.

    There is no reason I can think up for higher prices after Friday's job's report.
  6. If the job market is weak; why there is still high demand for oil; (about 75% of oil consumption is transportation); and government's own unemployment rate is still at 4.6%. It doesn't look like a recessionals number to me. plus the wages is still increasing.

    Anyway all these number doesn't add up; just felt that there is special interest at place; have tried to manipulated these numbers to suit their own needs.
  7. Cutten


    It's a long-term bull market that is trading near all-time highs. I'd rather be long than short. Only real downside is that it's run up quite a lot recently, so a bit of profit-taking might well occur.
  8. last yr the same thing could be said. That descent from 78 to 48 was not a comfortable ride down.
  9. DrEvil


    If it drops down to the 76.50 area I would fancy a short position, but from this level I would only be long or out.

    Good luck.
    #10     Sep 14, 2007