As CL Nears $80 - Buy or Sell?

Well today OPEC increased production for the first time in two years. Pretty bearish fundemental news and it was good for a 50 cent selloff after the announcement. Then it went right back up.
It seems CL is moving more on Gold and Dollar correlation rather than on the underlying fundementals. I do sense that shorting the 80 mark would be a nice trade even if its just a scalp. Everything hinges on the rate cut now or lack thereoff and Ben isn't really being transparent and giving guidence despite all his talk of transparency.
I hope CL blasts past $80 going into the fed meeting so that Ben understands that if he wants to inflate his way out of a minor recession - we could have $100 CL really soon, fundementals notwithstanding.

 

hold

 

I am starting doubts about qm; one day blow up pipeline; the other day increasing production. What a show down, it is a lot better than Hollywood action movies.

I want to trust governments over terrorists; however; the facts of matter is governments just keep dispointting all investors.

 

it is not about terrorists (only) - is there a bigger threat than 2 years ago when we had a lot of attacks? Hell NO. But oil keeps going up.
there is no more supply of oil - only more demand. And on top of that there is more money supply. simple as that.

 

I am starting doubts about qm; [/QUOTE]

My sentiments exactly. Either oil traders are fixated on something new or the price is being manupulated here.

There is no reason I can think up for higher prices after Friday's job's report.

 

Also released today:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

 

If the job market is weak; why there is still high demand for oil; (about 75% of oil consumption is transportation); and government's own unemployment rate is still at 4.6%. It doesn't look like a recessionals number to me. plus the wages is still increasing.

Anyway all these number doesn't add up; just felt that there is special interest at place; have tried to manipulated these numbers to suit their own needs.

 

It's a long-term bull market that is trading near all-time highs. I'd rather be long than short. Only real downside is that it's run up quite a lot recently, so a bit of profit-taking might well occur.

 

last yr the same thing could be said. That descent from 78 to 48 was not a comfortable ride down.

 

If it drops down to the 76.50 area I would fancy a short position, but from this level I would only be long or out.

Good luck.