You're definitely for real. The weakness appears before the turn and you have to wait for after the top to sell. Unfortunately I am not smart as it took me a few years between recognising where the turns would appear and getting my system set up to give the signal after the turn, not before. Lots of time wasted trying to work out optimum position sizing and exit points if the signal was false. Ironically waiting for later to sell at a lower price (after the top) removed enough of the false signals to be worth it. I am enjoying your posts here - thank you for sharing and glad you're not discouraged by the rude ones.
From how this thread has evolved, my 2c is you may need more screen time particularly on shorter time frames instead of just swing setups if you are using intraday information to tune entries and exits . The ES drop on the 23rd you pointed out had signs of possibility occuring including a previous resistance area from some of the previous day's mid swing-highs intraday. While there could also have been a case made for interim continuation long, probably a riskier trade since nearing a previous resistance area so best to scalp; there could also have been an entry to short or reverse with enough experience to recognize and respond to false signals and failures, as mentioned in the prior post, as well as possibly utilizing other methods of overall market structure. As for FX vs. futures, I'd agree FX is highly unregulated compared to the futures markets where all sorts of bucket brokers can even trade against you locally. And the increment of size on futures is generally better for managing size. Adding 10% or bigger leverage instantly in FX for a small retail account sounds more like impulsive overleveraging, averaging down, or gambling, imo.
In a bit of irony, I passed the 150k challenge at OneUp. Well, I need to make one trade and not lose something like 900 USD in the morning and then I have passed. Go figure.
For sure, there is a risk associated with the unregulated nature of Forex. As it was mentioned before, Forex brokers could act as a counterpart (actually, they do this always - you can find it in Terms and Conditions) that could possibly lead to the conflict of interest. At the same time, brokers licensed by European regulating authorities like British FCA or French AMF would less likely abuse this just because it could be punished. From the other point of view, this type of trading gives more opportunities. For example, there are no any daytrading restrictions for non-professionals like on US equities market. Thus, even newbie traders with relatively small initial capital can utilize any strategy they want and this is the main advantage of Forex. So, despite it is associated with substantial finanical risk, it is still interesting for some particular categories of traders if such trading conditions are suitable for them. They just have to keep in mind that they could lose the entire investment capital so it is important to protect funds you cannot afford to lose.
FX futures are imho a fairer playing field than playing against the casino, the shop that takes the other side of your trade. As for algos? Funds pay good money to developers for that. Unless one is better than them, the returns will be statistically not significant from zero after costs. Then there is the opportunity of say not being invested in a different asset class.
I'm doing FTMO Challenge starting today. Already up 1% in less than 12 hours. Trading forex so far as today is holiday, can't trade sp500.