Is there anyone out there actually making money at these markets without some kind of algo? I find the lack of liquidity perplexing to say the least. The sudden drops and pops out of nowhere make trading the futures markets difficult for me. However, I don't like to admit defeat - although I have blown several of these 'combines' trying to get it right. I blew up again today - but am up 3% in my live Forex account. Has anyone here made the jump from FX to futures? If so, what was it that helped? I use to believe that technical analysis can help.....but it doesn't in these markets from what I have seen - at least not on the short-term charts - which is all you can typically afford in real life with the nasty leverage. Also, the lack of scalbility is an issue. (You can only double, triple, etc your size instead of adding 10 percent like FX) Any thoughts? Chris
Sounds like you aren't capitalized for futures. If you're risking more than 1% of your account per trade you're not trading with the odds in your favor. You should never "blow up". You're making excuses in your post. Futures scale just fine with proper account size. Assuming you're doing consistently well in Forex you need to consider account size.
I daytraded 5 years forex and switched to futures ES. Should have done it much earlier. Futures are for me more easy to trade, no interventions, no sudden unexplainable moves, regulated markets (no brokers that are in fact the opposite party in your trades)... I trade based on mathematical models. You can step up with 1 contract at the time if you which. But I don't know the size of you account, so if you go from 1 to 2 contracts it is indeed doubling. And intraday is not a casino at all, but you should understand the market. Without understanding the market it is a casino for you.
It seems like a handicap, unless you have a large sized account. I haven't been dumb enough to trade any real money - unless you count the combine fees - which aren't really that much. It isn't an excuse, I just don't see this market as being anything other than machines playing ping pong at this point. I make money in Forex, and again - don't bother trading my own money. Why risk it? I trade OPM, but am looking to expand. I assume it is an issue because you cannot have a 50 point stop loss in most circumstances.....like you can in FX, due to the position sizing.
This is funny. I can say the EXACT same thing about the futures market you say in the first paragraph. Today, the market trended up - the ES - and then suddenly slammed lower. No real reason that I see, but by the time you read this, we will be back at the highs again. Its just so much more volatile than FX to me. I guess that is the question - how in the hell do you deal with it? It seems technical analysis isn't worth a f*ck in this market.
Size depends of the leverage you take and also the risk you are willing to take (where to put a stop?) If I would be a client from you I would immediately withdraw all my money. You see machines playing ping pong??? I see somebody who has no clue about trading. If you would have a clue you would also trade your own money. The fact that you don't proofs that you know that you have no clue about the market. I suppose that percentage wise you would put a stop on the same level trading the ES as trading Forex and the leverage should be equal too. So 50 points or not is irrelevant as percentage wise your loss when stopped out would be equal to your Forex stop. You can adjust the risk to the Forex risk you take.
The obvious answer: Have a trading plan that benefits from "pops and drops" Yes. Futures are a perfect underlying trading vehicle. Forex for retail traders is a Scam perpetuated by the online Forex brokers. Boils down to what is your rules for trading? Good application of correct rules that fit your tolerance for risk and size of account is the answer.
The ES market did not trend up. The strength of the trend was too weak. I was waiting to go short, and went short after the upwards move reversed. I got out roughly 30 points lower, but I will not go long here. Maybe if I get a signal I go short again. I will see what my system tells to do. The move down was very clear to me. But you apparently had no idea what the market would do. Wrong, we are now at 2628.50, so we did even not recover 50%.
Same, went short after that touch to the 20 EMA on the 5M, was a very good entry, but I exited far, far too early.