What has fool.com's investment performance been, out of interest? I mean their actual portfolio, not their cherry-picked 20/20 hindsight examples they use to shill their marketing spiel.
I don't know why people are still pushing buy and hold strategy. Buy and hold is a bullish bet on the market and essentially on the country. If the country's long term growth rate is clearly the same or below inflation rate, what's the point?
Economic moat is not a morningstar creation. That's a basic of fundamental analysis that all fundy investors include in their analysis. If anyone coined the term, I believe it would have been Peter Lynch. But Morningstar, fool, and zacks, are all based on fundamental analysis, which they've mixed up with trading, and that's where they go wrong. FA analysis is for investors, and for people buying companies. That's why all three of the above's portfolios were blown out during the big sell off. Investors weren't hurt, but traders were killed. That's what you get when you try to mix the two together.
for your stats needs you need to go to Niederhoffer he knows what he is talking about. Just blew up 3 or 4 times already, sinking his clients' ships. But hey, thats 5-6 times less blowouts than the average day trader in here, LOL.
daytrader/ lawyer, LOL. This is why I am here on ET to read posts such as this. Buddy, the volatility is here you are blind or foS. Go back to your divorce trials and cheat more money out of unassuming clients.
you could not be more wrong (does not mean I fully agree witht he article); Short term movements are mostly random, every beginner should know that and if not there is plenty quantitative analysis to support this. But I know you are a hard worker and want to always prove things for yourself: Alright, lets do it: Start at a 1-min bar frequency, establish a long if the current price is higher than 10 bars ago. Look at the performance 10 bars later. Do the same for shorts. Run various tests by varying the lookback and performance look forward parameter. Now step out and decrease the frequency until you get to a daily or monthly time frame. Report back what you have observed. Next, market makers bread and butter does not come from order flow imbalances. Quite the opposite. Market makers perform best when they have a buyer for each seller and vice versa, resulting in no forced warehoused positions or additional hedging cost. Please show me proof that market structure resembles fractals and even if it does (at this point I dont even know what you mean with it but please educate us) whats your argument and how does it point to support your claim that there are as strong short term as long term trends? Moving into longer time frames does not introduce any additional variables in itself. If you mean that now fundamental factors also impact prices in the longer term then you are right but the increased number of variables in that sense have a beneficial impact on your predictive power not the opposite. GSEs never had strong earnings power, everybody treated them as god-like entities because a paper tiger backed them. This has nothing whatsoever to do with survivorship bias, quite the opposite. Those companies with strong earnings power, innovative management teams are those companies who are still in the seat and have the cash to buy other companies. Its the Enrons, Tycos, and Lehmans that everyone is forgetting about and who either had horrible earnings power when time came to shut shop or they cooked the books. So, if you remove that bias then earnings power actually moves up couple ranks as price impacting factor in your PCA. Just a hint, but please do your own work to verify. Before you start getting all excited about this article you may wanna think a little deeper in your analysis...just my 2 cents
thats not hindsight that is employing thoughts on the level of how children think. If you did not come to the same conclusion EARLY ON then you are the idiot here not anyone else. In the same way isnt it crystal clear by now that RIMM will follow into the same exact footsteps than PALM? Wasnt it totally clear what would happen to Palm? Wasnt it also clear what happens to the brick and mortar video rentals? I mean, seriously, maybe you really think on a way too complex level. Here my hint for your next homework. Do you really think the ibanks are a cheap buy right now and that they are about to bottom out? Nothing that could cause an additional 10-20% drop in them? LOL