ARRY - Good Things to Come?

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by livevol_ophir, Apr 20, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    ARRY is trading 3.98 up 31.9% or $0.96 with IV30&#8482 exploding. The <a href="">LIVEVOL&#8482 Pro Summary</a> is below.

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    After all the super serious skew and earnings vol blogs I had to go old school "coin flip high flier." Forgive the digression...

    The stock is not just bio or pharma, it's Bio-Pharma! Look at the company name.

    Anyway, some good news if it's real:

    <b>Array BioPharma shares rise on Novartis deal</b>

    April 20 (Reuters) - Array BioPharma Inc shares rose as much as 38 percent Tuesday, a day after it signed a licensing deal for its cancer drug candidates with Swiss drugmaker Novartis AG (NOVN.VX), its second high-profile partnership in five months.

    The deal, which includes early stage candidate ARRY-162, entitles Array to $45 million in upfront payments and $422 million in milestones. [ID:nSGE63I0M5]

    Yang said the deal boosted Array's current cash position to about $140 million, which he estimated to be sufficient funding for the next two years.

    Array, which focuses on cancer, inflammatory and metabolic diseases, had inked a partnership deal with Amgen Inc for the development and marketing of its type 2 diabetes drug in December. [ID:nSGE5BE0JO]

    Rodman & Renshaw analyst Simos Simeonidis said he continued to view Array shares as undervalued, and reiterated his "market outperform" rating and $10 price target on the stock.

    He said the stock remained one of his top picks, citing Array's pipeline of four fully owned clinical programs and numerous compounds partnered with big pharma and biotech companies.

    Array's clinical programs include candidates for the treatment of multiple myeloma and breast cancer.

    William Blair & Co analyst John Sonnier said he viewed the Novartis transaction as further validation of Array's discovery platform.

    "Array's partnered programs represent over $2.0 billion in potential milestones, and significant royalty on sales," he said in a research note.

    (Reporting by Shailesh Kuber in Bangalore; Editing by Aradhana Aravindan)

    I have included the Options Tab (in the article).

    There's not exactly a lot going on, but I felt obliged to post it. Maybe sell some calls against stock. Nov 5 looks kinda juicy. Then again, is annualized 65 vol really a sale when the stock moved 30%+ in a day?

    The calls that have traded today in May - in particular the May 2.5 - are mostly sales from what I see. The stock is trading size volume (click to enlarge).

    12.1 million shares in three hours on total daily average volume of just 327k. A long stock position at $4 and selling the Nov 5 calls @ $0.50 means you're safe to $3.50 and can make 37.5% if the stock goes to $5 on Nov expo (not that anyone reading this blog needed me to do that calculation).

    The downside could be limited as it would require some "bad results" to push the stock back down for a while. Anyway, it can only go as low as $0.

    This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

    Details, prices, vols, stats here:
  2. If and when it gets above $5/share, institutional investors can buy the thing because it's no longer a penny-stock. Get your buy-stops in at $4.99/share! :cool:
  3. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

  4. Here is ARRY's Price/Time Targets chart.


  5. gaj


    interesting...i'm a daytrader, short this for a quick trade...

    EDIT: covered at 4.05. whew.
  6. ARRY has a Breakaway Gap with Heavy Volume today...

    Breakaway and Exhaustion gaps are more reliable than other gap types. Breakaway gaps occur when prices rise out of a congestion zones or long base trading ranges... They usually have heavy volume on the breakout. Prices usually make higher-highs from breakout levels and also have some signals (like Gaps, HHs, Volume etc..) in the prior trading range.