Ares

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Ares1, Jun 10, 2007.

  1. Ares1

    Ares1

    Correction:
    HOKU's weekly 8ma is 8.60
     
    #51     Jul 25, 2007
  2. Ares1

    Ares1

    HOKU chart
     
    #52     Jul 25, 2007
  3. Ares1

    Ares1

    1 share trade to trigger stops.

    If a $10 stock was down let's say $1 and is currently trading at $9, what repercussions does the SEC have for traders purposely buying let's say 10,000 shares at $9 and buying 1 share let's say at 10.25 to trigger the automatic stops of the shorts that are just above the high?
     
    #53     Jul 25, 2007
  4. Ares1

    Ares1

    HOKU.
    FTT (5 minute chart) at 9.32?
    Momentum low at 1 minute chart.

    or will this continue down to the 1.618 of the 5 minute opening range at 9.06?
     
    #54     Jul 25, 2007
  5. nkhoi

    nkhoi

    any appearance of collusion to manipulate stock or to manipulate stock on your own by just buying and selling in your own account is illegal anyway. So you will not see much reply.
     
    #55     Jul 25, 2007
  6. nkhoi

    nkhoi

    lets see if the theory works (12m to beige book)
    [​IMG]
     
    #56     Jul 25, 2007
  7. nkhoi

    nkhoi

    that was LOD
     
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    #57     Jul 25, 2007
  8. djxput

    djxput

    nkhoi,

    Are your charts all colorful and pretty or did someone just slip something into my drink :)
     
    #58     Jul 25, 2007
  9. Ares1

    Ares1

    Thanks nkhoi for your reply.

    Do you have a link for those rules?

    By the way, those charts do look colorful.
    It looks more like an inverse head and shoulders though.
    Both the bottom and top did have a bigger volume followed by a lower volume (in this case the bottom and top had lower volumes - a shakeout?).

    Your example also looks like it had a volatility expansion, a rally to the LTL, an FTT that FBO, followed by another FTT that BO.
    It then retraced to a fibonacci level that created point 3,etc.
    I should stop my analysis - I may not be analysing it according to the channels for building wealth.
    If my analysis was incorrect please let me know - I'm still in the process of reading the "manual" in more detail.


    Since market makers have to be on both sides of the market (bid and ask) they must be excempted from this example - are they?:

    Buying at $9 and selling at $10 both with 10,000 shares at the same time.
    This would give them an advantage of turning around quickly and buying (may be even just 1 share) above $10 (to trigger the automatic stops of shorts) after being filled at their bid price if they want.

    Just a thought:
    They may even ask another broker to buy for them to accomplish their goal.

    How about a market maker sitting at the bid refreshing 100 shares and calling its "rivals" to make the ask strong - isn't this collusion?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collusion

    By the way, Hoku's low today was 9.00.
    Pretty close to the 1.618 buy target of 9.06.

    If we try to plot all the probabilities, we may fill the chart with lines (diagonal and horizontal support and resistance).

    But, I wonder how strong the bounce would be if the price reaches or trades near the daily chart's fibonacci levels/uptrending RTL/50 ma,zig zag points,etc. WITH the intraday bottom fishing buy targets.

    Talking about bounces.
    I was thinking about the risk/reward ratio today.
    If I bought HOKU at 9.06 my mental stop would be at 8.86 and the reward would be at least 9.56 for a risk of 20 cents and a reward of at least 50 cents.
    That goal would NOT have been achieved before the market closed.
    The close is 9.39.

    I would like to re-read this to have a better idea on how to gauge profit targets properly using fibonacci:

    http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea...87&perpage=6&highlight=fibonacci&pagenumber=1

    Here is a copy of a fibonacci table I created on excel containing HOKU's information from today that would provide probablities for tommorow's trade.
     
    #59     Jul 26, 2007
  10. Ares1

    Ares1

    Strategy: Intraday Bottom Fishing a long term Uptrend

    What I have to keep in mind:

    TREND:
    Long term uptrend (above weekly or daily 8/50/200 ma)
    Daily pullback

    INDICATOR:
    Daily RSI(2) below 30 (my dominant downtrend channel)
    5 minute chart for the smaller traverse confirmed by the 1 minute chart.
    MACD divergence near zero (5 minute chart)
    Stochastics oversold (1 minute chart)
    Bollinger band ( breakout from a squeeze, momentum low,etc.)
    Multiple time frames (observe if the smaller timeframe looks like it's going to trade, is trading, or continues to trade WITH the larger time frame).

    PATTERN:

    Double Bottom
    Inverse Head and Shoulders
    Wolfe Wave
    Narrowing wedge
    Elliot Wave's c
    Gartley's d
    Cup and handle


    PEOPLE (Volume):

    Recent interest in the stock with Price+ and Volume+ on the longer term chart.
    Price- and Volume- on pullback
    Shakeout
    Capitulation/Exhaustion
    Gaussians (R2R with spike at the end of the move, B2B)

    PRICE ACTION:

    Fibonacci levels (daily swing/previous day's candle/5 and or 15 minute opening range)
    Level 2 set up
    Refreshers
    Time and sale prints
    Volatility Expansion
    FTT
    FBO
    FTT
    BO
     
    #60     Jul 26, 2007