Assuming you're AN evil genius AND ALL, aren't you A little silly yourself WHEN you reveal THIS TO us? Smurf
Just trying to help the little guys, smurf. thnking RIGHT about the market is the first step to success. TA as pushed by the machine is not the RIGHT way to THINK!! Think about it, TA departments are part of the MARKETING division of smith barney, MS, C, Legg, etc. WHY are they not part of the RESEARCH division? TA is seductive and variable wins keeps the suckers coming back for more-- slotmachinesq. TWO WORDS" HINDSIGHT BIAS
NO Anything that relies on the PAST is simply ignorant due to every changing cycles of the market. DON"T YOU GET IT? YOU ARE THE SUCKER AT THE TABLE--regardless of your claimed "streak".
The sequences of those cycles change but what CREATES them remains constant because HUMANS NEVER CHANGE. They make the same mistakes and are prone to the EXACT SAME behavior now as they were thousands of years ago. This is reflected each and every day, it's up to YOU to learn to quantify this behavior. I choose to use my own concoction of TA, derived from price, volume, and a contextual structure to read them correctly. You are a noob or you are a scorned vet trader, either way you are incorrect in your below statement.
Once again you are wrong. IT IS NO LONGER the masses of people that move the market. this entire behavioral premise of TA is IGNORANT, IT IS THE BIG MONEY THAT MOVES THE MARKET. ONE MAN, on a whim, who controls the masses of money, CAN CHANGE THE DIRECTION of the market. IT IS NO LONGER THE ANTS and their easy to follow fear and GREED--- it is the hedge fund managers who toss the market. HOW DARE YOU BELIEVE YOU CAN PREDICT WHAT A SINGLE PERSON will do in the future. YOU ARE LIVING IN 1967---- when there may have been some truth to quantifying human behavior. once again, it is the SINGLE man who has the money that moves the market-- NOT THE MASSES
Dude, IT DOESN'T MATTER. The collective actions of all mkt participants, big and small, small and big, just small, or just big are all READABLE. They do the SAME THINGS. You just haven't figured out a method to take advantage yet and you blame traditional "TA". Here is a hint...DON'T USE TRADITIONAL TA ALONE. Become crafty. IF not, we will just have to agree to disagree, cause clearly neither of us wants to alter their stance.
While I agree with your criticisms of TA can you tell me what kind of market analysis doesn't rely on past data? Statisitical, technical, fundamental all are based on guessing that event B will happen because event A has happened. Even scalping from DOM is based on watching sales that have occured and then making decisions about future order flow.
FWIW, there is an interesting set of slides from a hedge fund/physicist that discuss some of the ideas here from a quant POV. Enjoy. ---------------------------------------------- Fundamental Financial Analyst: Price/Earnings ratios, global economy, demand for products MSNBC Financial reports company by company Quantitative Financial Analyst: large data sets of historical prices, etc, and statistical models Data mining, pattern recognition, analysis Technical Analyst: moving average trend lines, Elliot wave theory, visual patterns in pricing (âcup and bowlâ, âevening starâ) Generally not well-founded in statistics www.fnal.gov/orgs/fermilab_users_org/Krane.ppt Comparing TA to QFA is like comparing high school math (if that) comprehension to graduate level math comprehension. Notice the bulk of best sellers pander to the high school math crowd (Ironically), while the 'good' stuff that pros use is hidden away in esoteric texts that few bother to read (nor will most even comprehend). There are a few (but very few) posters here that I would classify on the QFA side. Seek them out and try to understand what they have to say (because there are also a few generous ones who throw a bone once in a while). The problem with many pure QFA sites (much like actual real life jobs) is that they are filled with pontificating mathematicians who like to derive obfuscating equations all day long, but couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag. If you can blend both sides, then as someone once quipped, the world is your oyster.
there are random trading systems built that work on the style of thought that its all random... not saying i agree or disagree with it but it doesnt run on past.