OK. I was kind of more referring to the t2w thread I linked where there are a few people who claim to have the keys to the kingdom and dont use charts/TA at all but wouldn't give any real clue to the rest of the mere mortals involved in the thread. I assumed you were one of them! 2 years? Id be publicly ashamed and embarassed if i told you how long ive been trying to get the hang of it! Some people would probably contemplate suicide having recieved such little reward for 'X' amount of years of 'screentime'!
No not me on t2w, this is the only trading (and I use this term loosely) website I ever go on. I'm on here enough I have no idea how to trade without charts or TA, I would be just as lost as the next guy. As far as time needed, it seems 2 yrs is generally the minimum. The term "screen time" as I use it encompasses not only live mkt action, but the processing of what is happening, the linking of commonalities and the putting and taking away of pieces to try and make a puzzle picture of how to read the mkts. Just because someone sits and watches the mkts for 2 yrs doesn't really mean that much, the brain has to really work at finding patterns. Dude, I've written at least 10 full notebooks in my first 3 yrs of concepts, with diagrams and arrows showing thought progressions. The revamping and the refining as I went along. I didn't have a life for about 2.5 yrs when I first started out. Spent nearly every single weekend at home looking and charts from the current time and yrs back to familiarize myself with everything. Gladly its paid off but I can tell you it did not come easy
it's possible to trade without charts or fundamental analysis (in the classical sense) when I used to trade options I only used a spreadsheet and IB TWS (there weren't any charts at that time). About five years ago they introduced cancellation costs at IB so had to stop trading that way cause I sent over 1000 quotes to the CBOE each day. My spreadsheet and the market data + flow told me what we expensive or cheap and I positioned myself accordingly. EDIT: I only traded the first two months of DIA options, I did at times have a chart on, but it played no matter whatsoever in my trading.
You continue stating that using a chart works or using moving averages works. However, if that's true...why do you keep saying TA doesn't work. It's very simple. If you're looking at a chart to help you make trade decisions, even if the chart only has price and nothing else... You're using technical analysis. In addition, you're making an error like TraderZones does in assuming that profitable traders are only using TA. However, that's not your fault nor his fault because too many profitable traders give the facade that the only thing they're using is TA when in fact that's not true. Another way to look at it, I've never met a profitable trader that only uses TA and nothing else via the fact that most profitable traders I personally know that includes retail traders, institutional traders, floor traders and prop traders... Those that use TA profitably...TA is just one piece of the puzzle that they have amongst other pieces of the puzzle that are in their correct position...working together. Simply, these guys/gals have other things on their side that most traders don't talk about for whatever reason (it's boring): * Market Experience * Money Management * Discipline * Team Collaboration (they aren't doing this alone) * Access to resources that most don't have * Properly Capitalize * Other stuff My point is that, these guys/gals that have all the above...they sometimes argue that TA works without mentioning (intentionally or accidentally) any of the above and that in itself gives the impression that it's the only thing they use which is false. Here's a commercial analogy. Tiger Woods is on TV (commercial) hitting some golf ball some obscene distance with so new expensive golf club. Yeah...sure the commercial is trying to state that it's the golf club that hit the ball that far and you can do the same if you buy their expensive golf club but we all know Tiger Woods has a lot more going on to produce his success than just some expensive golf club. Therefore, do you get upset about those types of TV commericals? If not, why do you or TraderZones get upset about someone giving the false impression it's only the TA? :eek: Something else, now that I've drawn the dots to marketing and advertising. All the data vendors (e.g. esignal, qcharts, barchart et cetera) need to promote TA especially via those webinars, guest speakers, free classes et cetera because it's one of the best marketing tools to get traders to use their charts. They are the biggest promoters of technical analysis and traders doing the same themselves are not worst. Once again, I've never met a profitable trader that only uses TA and nothing else nor will I ever believe if I go buy that expensive golf club I can play like Tiger Woods. Mark
ur right retaildaytrader, ur the first one who figured out technical analysis is bunk. Good work dumbass. How is it you're making a living in the market these days?
U seem to be a pro at what doesn't work. Plenty of experience w/that i presume. Any idea what does work?
I would agree that this is the case. There are no secrets in trading, the difficulty is taking some theory written in a book and applying it real time, to the real world. The only exception I can think of would be the really esoteric stat arbitrage and microstructure stuff that has only emerged in the past few years, with the advent of HFT, co-location etc. Not much has been written about that, presumably because it's so gimmicky that you really would be giving away an edge, in a way that talking about S/R or Auction Market Theory etc. doesn't.
Major concepts I'm sure have been covered in various books ad nausea but the nitty gritty specifics, the actual stuff that makes all the difference, is what I am referring to as the secret stuff that is so very very hard to find (because there is no real reason to do anything else other than TRADE it). Everyone knows that certain mkts, like the ES, have a great deal of mean reversion qualities however finding a specific and detailed plan to consistently catch these opportunities is what you don't find in books. Because this is the stuff that makes the trader real money! Not some basic concepts with a chart and some arrows showing what happened but a step by step road map from entering a trade to the reason for exiting with a list of processes of what needs to be seen in order for this to happen or for that to happen (ie price must move this far before scaling on this type of volume compared to the previous time it did....etc etc) This is what I meant by mocking the OP who said EVERYTHING is out there and there are no secrets. And, if another trader out there does exactly what I do (which is pretty unlikely but possible), it's a secret to me cause I don't know about it nor have ever read anyone or anything detailing it.
Well, I think the sports analogy makes the point. It'd be silly to say that there are any hidden edges or secret strategies when it comes to playing football or baseball, but even so only a tiny fraction of people are able to compete at a high level, and only a tiny fraction of those truly excel. Pretty much the same thing with trading, there's no lack of theoretical written material out there, and some resources (like Al Brooks' book) come pretty close to the sort of step-by-step guide that you're describing. The difference is in the individual's level of experience and ability to execute. Of course I agree that there ARE some hidden edges in trading, if you get into the subjects I mentioned above, but plenty of people trade successfully without scalping for a penny at a time...
I have made more money by simply dumbing down then with all these complex things. [/B][/QUOTE] Best strategy IMO.