Are you sick of technical analysis? I am...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by retaildaytrader, Oct 21, 2009.

  1. R1234

    R1234

    TA by itself has lost its fine edge over the past 5 to 10 years (it still works but not as well). This is mainly due to the advent of easy TA overlays/automation available from most retail brokers. You need other tools besides TA but use TA to confirm entries and exits.
     
    #11     Oct 21, 2009
  2. Lethn

    Lethn

    I once got showed a bunch of GDP charts by a guy who was arguing with me on a forum about how the U.S was apparently coming out of a session. After explaining to him the reasons why it wasn't he then proceeded to bicker with me about the definition of a recession because he couldn't come up with any responses. After that I just called him a moron and then decided to ignore any posts he wrote towards me after that. The ridiculous thing was the charts that he had shown me only showed a slight rise in the amount of GDP for the U.S and it didn't even go to 2010 or past November and he was banking his ENTIRE belief on that.

    The amount of blind optomism that comes from people who attempt to understand the economy is amazing. I don't claim to know everything about the economy or trading I'm still learning and hell I haven't even had the chance to test whether I can trade yet because I'm still having to work on getting a job but. I think it's stupid that there are clearly middle-aged to old adults out there who can normally think perfectly well for themselves are having such a hard time even accepting that their government and their banks have screwed them over.
     
    #12     Oct 22, 2009
  3. TA had been far less effective in this 7 month long power spike than it normally is
     
    #13     Oct 22, 2009
  4. Topper

    Topper

    imo I think a trader absolutely must be open minded and able to adapt to the current feel/dynamics of the market when using ta. An example would be to compare equities from the days of the late 90s and 1st quarter of 2000 to say the second quarter of 09 to the present. Ten years ago when tech was going parabolic, a move 10 points above say an upper bollinger band could be followed up for days with continuous large point moves whereas today, from my observations, the corps that hold similar fundamentals to those a decade ago move much more cautiously with tighter, more realistic valuations. My point being is that 'rules' governing the interpretations of indicators have to be shaped to the current market, and the trader must be able to break free and adapt to the changes.
     
    #14     Oct 22, 2009
  5. How about old style Price action ...............that is a new idea!
    try it you will like it, I promis it will never let you down

    Is is not the Easiest for newbie's to learn but it truly is the
    best


    Happy Trading,

    Joe
     
    #15     Oct 22, 2009
  6. Topper

    Topper

    was waiting for that :p
     
    #16     Oct 22, 2009
  7. A successful trader doesn't necessarily need to be a chartist, a tape reader, or an intuitive speculator.

    A successful trader, however, must find his or her own way and leverage their skills, through discipline and practice, with an instrument they must know better than themselves.

    A successful trader must know how to take a loss and be courageous enough to admit that, and move to the next position.

    There are many, many professional analysts but very few successful traders.

    Ignore the herd, disregard the news and play your hand.
     
    #17     Oct 22, 2009
  8. Congratulations. You just joined the 3%. :)
     
    #18     Oct 22, 2009
  9. I never get why anybody would behave in candle chart patterns in the first place. Its a completely stupid pursuit. Depending on what time you start the bar/candle and what frequency you look at you get completely chart patterns, sometimes opposing patterns. I dont see the point at all...


     
    #19     Oct 22, 2009
  10. I did not say "This is hard". In fact, I understand it perfectly. All I am saying is that it doesn't work. In fact, when I looked at the statistical studies it seemed like most chart formations are a 50-50 coin flip. So I can flip a coin and come out with the same results as technical analysis?

    I also read that slope blog (and many other blogs). I see these guys post charts time and time again with great conviction and they always seem to be wrong and on the other side of the trade. I have concluded that they probably do not use real money to trade. If they did, then their accounts would have been blown away a long time ago. All those guys are selling something and want you to buy what they are selling. In the case of the slope blog, I found out that he was managing money on the side and selling subscriptions to that charting program. So all of the fancy analysis gets people to take out their wallets.

    The other thing about complex theory and analysis is that it is oftentimes clouded by emotions and prejudice. If you swing the lines by just a degree or less or press that "log" button at the top, then another picture emerges. The trader oftentimes does not want to see that other picture and they desire the market to fit their perspective.

    Well, I don't want to write an essay. Let me put it like this. If mastering the market was as easy as subscribing to a technical analysis site, dont you think everyone would be making millions by now?

    I really believe dumbing down and looking at things very simply is the answer versus complex not easily understood theories...

     
    #20     Oct 22, 2009