You're espousing the much ridiculed efficient market hypothesis: at all times, all inefficiencies are arbed out by genius quants. It's not controversial to point out that these quants blew their load into March 2009. As Keynes noted, market behavior is susceptible to "animal spirits" rather than predictable mathematical cycles. The best traders at my previous firm didn't even have a bachelor's degree. One was a former marine who, day in and day out, made $1k a day for years, based purely off of observing price action. The EFH is academic smoke and mirrors. Marketsurfer has embarrassed himself on a regular basis by acting as if ignorant hubris mixed with class pretension would lead to positive returns. It's a shame his gold call thread has been discontinued. What's your opinion of him, AmbienCR?