Are you guys prepared for this bear market +5 years?

See 1965-82; then say Bullshit; rm.....lot's of stuff can happen, that you can't even contemplate. Do you think that when the Nikkei was at 40K...they would ever see 8500?

Come on boy...get with the program..are you ready for SP 650?

Food for thought?

David

 

This market is no worse than the system used to trade it. So far we are performing within the same daily average of past years. Only the first 3 weeks of January were a bit tougher than usual, but still reasonably profitable.

My only hope is the Indexes do not drop much more than another 20% or so. Once they get to low, the intra-day moves will require a revision of our trading system as in all probability there will not be a large enough range for our current system to generate a signal and still have enough move left for a reasonable profit target.

 

i am aware of my history. saying "bullshit" is just wishful thinking- or hoping that we won't be in a prolonged bear market. but, yes, it is a possibility. i can still make money, but i enjoy trading the raging bull much better- who doesn't??

 

The next time you want to ruin other traders day, why don´t you look at yourself instead. I understand the need to vent, but it´s time you took a very long sabbatical or even quit trading altogether, it will be one less person fighting for dimes. Have a nice day.

 

Agreed. Was just asking, not cage rattling.

Thanks for the reply.

David

 

That's the beauty of the market, it's always fair. a lot of idiots, who made millions in the 90's, are losing their shirt right now. in the end you just gotta be good at what you're doing, there's no hiding like in an ordinary 9-5 job. too tough for some.

 

Yes..well said

 

In late 90's, just hold on to the long positions. Similarly, in 2001 and 2002, just hold on to the short positions. Now, no buy-and-hold for the long and the short. Really need to trade to make money.

Just my two cents.

 

In 2001 and 2002 only in retrospect should one hold onto the short positions. It certainly wasn't so clear during any of the 20-30% rallies from the bottom (and with some tech stocks going up over 100%) that holding onto a short was such a good idea. Its interesting to note that for all of the one-day 4% moves in the Nasdaq over the past decade, 75% of them have occurred since April, 2000. Not so easy to be short.

Although I'm mostly in trading mode I'm starting to think a buy and hold strategy (with trading daily around the core position) makes the most sense. Lets not forget that two of the biggest years in the market ever were 1933 and 1975. 1933, in fact, was the largest up year in market history with a 54% move. This was during the 4th year in a row of negative GDP (we havent had 1 year), 25% unemployment, war on the horizon, deflation, 4000 banks failed that year, etc. We can only be so lucky here.

 

Perhaps you are referring to position trading, since position traders often take a core position and add and subtract to it occassionally. The gold stocks are looking good for that type of trading. I am a swing trader and a position trader myself.