I'm repeating myself ad nauseum here. The quiz is on a 5 min chart, showing 1-2 days including overnight session. I get that you do not use this approach -- that's fine. If I have time I'll put together another quiz with daily candles and then weeklies, etc. But the quiz is for traders who claim to be great at trading 5 min charts. Think Al Brooks types and other "price action" followers.
Yes, LS, but you keep lamely trying to associate your little coin flip with a conclusion on the viability of Price Action trading. Do you have links showing a Price Action method that enables Calling The Next Candle Close? If so post that bad boy up. You have not tied your coin flip to any published Price Action method. There is no logic to your method. It is just ill informed folly, lol.
Yes I took the quiz too, but the results will tell you nothing about Price Action trading sadly. I think Al Brooks would be the first to acknowledge that, most of the time, price action will not give you a tradeable signal on where price is going, but occasionally there are glimpses (the fog of war I think he calls it) where you get a set up that might give you a marginally better than even chance that the price will move in a particular direction. That is all you can hope for, and I think he is probably right.
Predictable in the sense, a trader shouldn't be holding long, there was no inkling it was going total belly up imo.
If people had looked at the balance sheet in their last report they'd have seen this line: “held to maturity.” That would be their bonds at purchase price. BUT.... even though they are not required to deduct the losses at the current value, as they would another loss, they are required to line item the current liquidation price, as applied to their balance sheet. Anyone could have spotted this on SVIB's latest report. They were not doing real well ratio wise. Any analyst, or any bank geek at the likes of Citadel that knows these things, would have spotted this. So whoever you referred to that stated price action foretold this.... they are probably right.... BUT.... there is a reason behind that price action... somewhere out there was a few smart cookies that caught it and started selling. There's another post here about bottom fishing the sector. That is an excellent idea.... but one must know what they are doing first, odds are... as ET members, they don't. Smart money would suggest before buying any bank stock right now, pulling up the latest report, obviously of a regional, and then line item “available for sale” or “held to maturity” (again, these bonds that are underwater) as a ratio to their total depositor liabilities. The one with the lowest number wins. I already did this. There's a few. Personally, I like 5th Third.