Which one is that? Meanwhile, what are the odds you actually do this fair one... No, let's make the charts 1minute candles. Let's make the charts 5minute candles. Or let's make them a mix of both, that would be great. As probabilities go, there will need to be more than one example included inasmuch as one single trade tells us nothing, but a dozen would be a start on a good honest ballpark loose estimate of the setup's potential for further inquiry. The time window is a matter of the setup's formation. In the example above, if the very last candle that prints before the hard right edge would be the one that closes across the neckline (by the numeral '8' in the example), that starts the trade by triggering an entry on the next bar open, according to the vanilla directions. The amount of candles that you include before the formation is up to you, but if it shows this much, we're in business...
Smart post. Knowing thoroughly the market you trade provides context for the changing prices you see on a chart. Context is more than just technical data (price and volume), although they are essential. A few examples of nontechnical context are seasonality, day of week, time of day, preplanned news cycles, election cycles, Fed policy cycle (tightening or loosening), general mood of the country, the state of the world (wars, disasters, etc.). No two days are the same because the context is never the same from one day to the next. With regard to a trading day, the shorter the duration that is being traded the more the technical context dominates. The repeatability of technical context gives the trader a deja-vu feeling when viewing charts without nontechnical context. But this is an illusion.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...echnical-analysis.372963/page-17#post-5774590 @longandshort you can answer all your own questions by simply doing your own testing of whatever price action patterns or pony and clown show patterns you like. Then you do not have to quiz, guess, or debate anything. You know what works and what does not work, per your capital funding.
Right! For instance in order to be Price Action it has to show as it happens or in vivo. Charts are HISTORICAL. They show what happened. They do not show how it happened. How it happens is a large part of the action. 5 minutes is a VERY long time for some instruments. Heck a 1 min bar or "summary", can be too long when the action is fast. Op should not conflate the two and making any conclusions: Apple are sweet, but tart, Oranges are tart but sweet.
I'm in the camp that is certain that it is possible to trade profitably directly off of charts. My own experience with this is primarily through swing trading with daily charts, though, and I also use moving averages. Hilmy had suggestions for improving the test charts (shown below; underlining done by me). To his list, I would add: 1. Include volume on the bottom of the charts 2. Allow the trader to choose which of the charts they perceive to have a tradable edge, e.g., they can choose any 6 out of 10 charts to answer the question. They would then only be scored on the top charts where application of their method led to a conclusion about probable direction. Question for other chart-based traders: what features would make the test as reasonable and fair as possible... so that support-resistance traders can see important recent S/R zones, channel-and-range traders can draw channel lines, trendline traders can visualize appropriate trendlines, double bottom/double top traders and others who use price patterns or candle patterns can see what they need to see, etc. From Hilmy: "First off, standardize the data set. Equal amount of bars for all the charts (ex. 3 days leading to the most recent RTH). Contrast the colors so people can see and make sure individual bars are clear. Your answer should really just be: a. more bullish bars from now till close b. more bearish bars from now till close c. equal bullish/bearish bars from now till close I think that's more accurate representation of PA than asking a binary question for the next bar in time..."