Are you best off just leaving your money in the Bank?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by noparole, Jul 1, 2008.

  1. noparole


    It seems even 'safe' investments these days are not quite so.Relatively 'safe' shares have tumbled and the global Stock markets have tanked,the housing market has melted down,inflation is out of control - it beggars the question - why bother taking the risk of investing when you can just leave it in the bank and get a nice return risk-free?

    BTW I'm not talking about making millions overnight,just a general return on capital.
  2. 3% is a "nice return"?

    Factor in inflation and you're losing 3-4% a year.
  3. How are you making a risk free return when you get 2% in the bank and inflation is 4%?
  4. noparole


    OK,I'll be a little clearer,I'm currently living in the UK where you get 5% in the Bank and tying it up for 6 months to a year you can get 6-6.5%

    At the end of the year the capital remains the same and on a significant deposit the returns are definitely 'nice'.

    It seems everything else is crumbling so why bother investing anywhere if you want some level of protection?
  5. Now that we have nitpicked the OP's wording, do we have appropriate alternatives to suggest? His idea seems reasonable for a lot of people.
  6. Thank you!!! Now, PLEASE relay that to the prospective Clients I have!!!:)

    Some sitting on 3-5mm ALL in CD's. They'be been that way for at least two years that I know of.:eek: All because they don't understand inflationary erosion. They don't get a statement that says "you lost ___ this month," so they 'think' they aren't losing money. Sad...

    Again, great post!!! Two thumbs up!
  7. ok so they are getting inflationary is that worse than losing real dollars in the market? i agree that for long term investing market timing isnt a great idea, but if youre talking about those who have already been on the sidelines already in CD's, how can you argue that was dumb if they would have lost much more in the market? this is assuming of course they are average stock pickers, or would have been long s&p.
  8. I can see what you mean. Europe isn't doing very well (like us:( ), and money is flowing into cash.

    This is where careful selection of equities is the rule. In a bull market, I had some rookie brokers come to me saying, "look at what I got them in return this quarter!" That's because in 2006, you could throw a handfull of stocks against the wall, and a good majority would stick. Or at least hang around before slowly sliding down the wall.

    In this environment, you throw a hand full of stocks against the wall, and look out!! ricochet! Two stick, one slides down slowly, and seven ricochet like hell.:eek:
  9. Well absolutely! I'd rather lose a few % to inflation than be down 12% with the DOW or SPX.

    The ones that are sidelined in CD's BECAUSE of the market volatility, AND the fact that they are going to need some or all of that capital sooner than later is exactly why they shouldn't change a thing, staying in cash.

    Now the people who are in CD's, are in their 30's-50's, and have been since 2002.:eek: Yes, that means they took their money (what was left of it) at the low, and put it in CD's missing the recovery in 03-early 07.:eek:

    I model portfolios with Alternatives such as Oil and Gas drilling programs, Private REIT's, Equipment Leasing Programs (great hedge for rising interest rates and inflation. PM me, I'll tell you the details), and Commodities for my Accredited Clients. Alternatives as you should know are usually illiquid, so "it can't all go there."

    The remainder of their money goes towards one or more SMA accounts holding stocks, bonds, and cash. For example, they could have anywhere from 30-40% of their money in 18-25 equities, 20% cash, and 15% bonds.

    For my Balanced to Moderate Clients, I'm up about 1.2% YTD. Yes, I know, nothing to write home about. But, I'll take it in this environment. Will I be able to stay above water the next quarter? I doubt it...

    The market has "done it's thing" to everyone who dares go long the major indexes. However, with the income from the alternatives, my Clients are happy with me. Especially when they talk to their friends who work with Merrill, Smith Barney, etc., I got a call this afternoon from a Smith Barney Broker wanting to know "what the hell are you doing?" LOL! I laughed about it with him for a minute as he realized that he has been making Smith Barney happy with the "stuff" they put on his plate instead of his Clients. I'm Independent. He's captive. He is going to have to jump through hoops to get the alternatives through compliance, as compliance doesn't know anything other than to say no these days. I can hear them now. "Sell them Mutual Funds that are defensive." LOL!!

    Some guys wouldn't have helped him out, but I think that's nuts!! If a guy 30 miles away from me is handling Client money, he owes it to them to do the best he can do for THEM. So I gave him a good strategy for modeling portfolios with alternatives, and the correct % allocation used for each type of client from Conservative to Growth. If his Clients do well, our community does well, as they spend the money. Pretty common sense stuff. I hope...
  10. there is no new money to invest, what don't you understand.

    savings rate is 0% with stagflation reality.

    theory of savings/investments

    #10     Jul 1, 2008