Ok, we have one person who Makes a believable case that he/she can earn a middle class living trading from home without starting with tons of capital. Anyone else??
Believable, how ? My experience tells me it is not possible to learn real trading from paper trading. The main problem is that the counterparty behaviour is not present in paper trades. Dealing with the counterparty behaviour is the main component of any real trading.
I previously stated that paper trading doesn't have the real emotions of trading with real $$$. But paper trading allows you to pick entry/exit points. It also allows you to learn whatever trading platform you'll be trading with. And when you're paper trading the other side filling you can, in fact, exhibit certain behavior. They can do exactly what I describe below (with ONNN) and be a big seller to frustrate the buyer(s) by continually refreshing. And when one moves from paper trading to trading their own $$$ they're either ready to put money on the line or they're not. You seem to think the 'counterparty' has an advantage. I don't see it that way at all. The other side of the trade could be a novice chasing a trade that's already had a run. Or it could be someone needing to exit a trade due to a loss. Anyone who worries about the other side of the trade is at a disadvantage IMO. You can't trade scared or worried about who is filling you. One also can pick up things over time that can be advantageous. The other day trading ONNN I noticed a seller sold 600 shares every 15 seconds. It went on and on and on. Clearly an institution wanted to unload a larger position and didn't want to display their true size. So they did 600 shares and kept refreshing. I sat patiently until I saw the seller finally disappear, bought my shares and watched it move up quickly.
I will say this... In order to learn how to trade profitably, you need to survive over time. That is the reason why I think you're tilting the odds into lottery range if you don't have some sort of other income. At least for me, and two of the three other successful traders that I know, trading was more of a wealth building activity that coincided with having a job/business. The other guy is a full time forex trader with a six figure income. Of course trading in longer time horizons is generally required when you have a 8-10 hour per day time commitment with work. But at least you have the reduced pressure from not having to try to feed your kids and make your mortgage payment each week from trading. I've never understood why more people don't work on a swing/position trading strategy while continuing to work for your daily living expenses. The full time day trading thing can surely be done, but I bet the odds of success are 10 fold for those that look at trading as a way to compound their wealth rather than their income source.
E.J.: not sure he is allowed to trade anymore, but there is no doubt he could continue to make outsized gains in this tough trading environment
Most if not all of retail have banks being the other side. What market are you trading that allows you to buy from novices ?
And there are plenty of retail traders/investors trading through Fidelity, E&Trade, etc. who have their orders routed. I used a novice trader as one simple example. Not sure how long you've been in the markets but I go back to when market makers were all over the place along with the ECN's, back in the days of SOES. I always felt I was as smart as a market maker. They were there to make markets. And like anyone else I can hide my size, whether buying or selling. As I said previously, anyone who is afraid of the other side will likely fail. Experience, psychology and the ability to handle your emotions is a big factor in succeeding IMO. I really don't care if I'm buying from some E&Trade retail investor or an institution; I pick my entries and exits based on what I see.
An honest question, you can hide your size from level 3 screens? i observed Knight trading trade for several weeks--- any platform was easy pickings for them, this was my first direct experience that what people say they do from a retail perspective in the market is far different from reality. the other side is like a god with knowledge of you. surf
I agree that trading is hard. Finding an edge is hard. But what gives me hope is the fact that I think there are far far far far more successful closet traders out there that we know about. Think about it for a moment. People get nobel prizes to wax poetic about market effeciency. But if someone wanted to prove them wrong, he or she would have to reveal their edge in order to falsify the statement, which in turn would nullify their edge when it became public knowledge. I don't know about you, but I personally wouldn't give away my trading secrets that were making me lots of money, even if it got me a nobel prize. Reality is forums like this are for those of us who are still searching for a way. If I do start trading successful, there would be no reason for me to browse such forums. Thus things are skewed in favor of nay-sayers here anyway. (Heres hoping im this optimistic 5 years from now. Pray for me !)
Don't worry there are loads of edges out there, think combination of a few small edges used in the right order which out does the sum of there parts in theory. That's what I'm perfecting, my edges all get me profitable, but finding the right combination is taking time and the right mindset to trade them correctly to make what I want to be making. I think I'm either nearly there or going mad at this point.