When ranges contract and/or trends are not persistent, one is forced to operate in a more "counter-trend" fashion. One either does this or switches to different commodities or asset classes.
Am I a predictor ? I shorted CQB the last week of July/05 I shorted DNA on Sept 9/05 I went long USD at the beginning of 2005 I shorted MAR Aug 8/05 and so on..... Am I up this year ? NO. Why ? Because I have let my own fear control my trading. I bring these trades up because they have been the most profitable. But more importantly because I KNEW they were going to be profitable. All the other trades some that worked and some that didn't..... I am changing this.. Screw whatever everybody thinks. Some traders say making money trading tops and bottoms is impossible, then that's exactly what I will do. I will play this game exactly as I know I can play it..and it is not taking a bunch of trades here and there, but ONLY trading the trades that I KNOW will be profitable. Call me crazy, but this numbers games and probability crap is all BS to me. I tried to do it the conventional way and it didn't work for me. So, step aside guys, I wouldn't want you to get hurt..... My slate is clean and I am taking no prisoners...
"Maybe so, but I still think that there is a distinction between those who trade on the basis of preceived tendencies and those who "confidently" predict future price levels and the timing in which their chosen markets will reach those levels. The former are pragmatic traders. I view the latter somewhat less favorably. Perhaps incorrectly, I am more inclined to call this latter group the "predictors," and not in a good way. Just a personal bias in my effort to draw a distinction." thunderdog, I think that all you are saying is that the more precise the prediction the less favorably you view it, nevertheless percieving tendencies is still a prediction since you assume the tendency will continue into the future. Jumping onto a 'trend' is a prediction that the trend continues, ect. bricks and mortar on the other hand says that confidence is good and that if someone does enough homework then it becomes a sure thing. maybe bricks is successful so far but there isn't any such thing as a sure bet except a savings account. I just don't buy that you can sqeeze all the risk out of any investment by just working hard enough, there are plenty of counterexamples.
Absolutely! This is one of those "issues" that "fundamentalists" often raise. "You can't predict the markets!" As if fundamental analysis isn't also a form of projecting into the future! When anyone anywhere takes a position in any market for any reason, they are "predicting". It's inherent to the process. To suggest otherwise is naive. H
I guess I can't really argue with that logic, although I have argued against it in the past because of my misguided effort to draw a distinction between traders and charlatan fortune tellers. However, objectively speaking, I guess we are all engaged in the "prediction" business in varying degrees, so I guess it is somewhat of a moot point. Of course, this goes against the grain of my earlier diatribes. As an aside, a tendency does not necessarily have to be a trend -- at least not in the conventional sense. Yeah, yeah, whatever. When in doubt, one tends to revert to the first four letters of the word analysis. Fortunately, I see the light now, and the air is much fresher.