Are you a Dollar bull or bear for the next few months?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Optional, Mar 30, 2009.

Will the Dollar (DX) be higher/lower/flat over the next quarter?

  1. Higher

    24 vote(s)
  2. Flat

    7 vote(s)
  3. Lower

    37 vote(s)
  1. Could be an exciting week coming up. An imminent breakdown on the US dollar should put gold closer to resolving to the upside. Stay tuned! Fireworks are coming over the next six months.
    #21     Aug 2, 2009
  2. I see dollar rising as the global equity market falls.
    #22     Aug 2, 2009
  3. Anything you see on the charts or just a feeling? Just curious to see what the other side of the trade is thinking
    #23     Aug 2, 2009
  4. Here is Dollar ABC Chart with Price/Time Projections.


    #24     Aug 2, 2009
  5. Interesting, but I'd be very surprised if it busted through the old 1050 high this year.
    Next year, I could see pretty easily. My personal working hypothesis, based strictly on gut and a working knowledge based on years of trading the thing, is that it bottoms around Thanksgiving. A rally to the old 1050 high between now and then wouldn't invalidate that.
    Anyway, based on that, I'm voting for a flat dollar for the next few months. The breakdown on Friday was certainly impressive, though.
    #25     Aug 2, 2009
  6. I think we see that breakdown from Friday continue until at least NFP. The silly equity behavior will continue to translate into a risk orgy that see assets fleeing the dollar and heading to all things risky - metals, comdols, equities, emerging markets, etc.

    Free money. Don't fight it.
    #26     Aug 2, 2009
  7. Interesting comments. My personal feeling is that the consolidation over the last two months was very weak. Prices on the DXY seemed to have a hard time rallying more than a couple of points off of MAJOR support. This suggests to me that there are not willing buyers for the US currency at these levels.

    Thanks all for your contributions. As Ivanovich pointed out, the US dollar is controlling action in many markets right now and needs to be watched closely as it is on the verge of a big breakdown.
    #27     Aug 2, 2009
  8. Confirmation of the breakdown in the USD today in a big way. Small support on the DXY at 76 and then back to the lows. Note the similarity in gold prices with the 2005-2007 period. Back then, gold prices consolidated for about a year and a half before lifting to new highs. This lift began in August. Currently, we have been consolidating for the exact same amount of time and the lift appears to be coming at a very similar time of year.
    #28     Aug 3, 2009
  9. We're closer to the end than the beginning on this risk orgy. This trade is looking extremely crowded.
    #29     Aug 3, 2009
  10. Think S&P posts intermediate top between 1010-1020 (Dow around 9500) and then we go down hard...
    Possible that we get a year end rally to 10,3-10,5 in the Dow, but we'll see what happens.
    #30     Aug 4, 2009