I'd say it is a real long shot that any change will be made before the election. And I mean real long.
big companies like mcd and ge said bad future things today. google and apple are trading down again. europe is the most interesting spot in the world and i don't have any idea how they can fix it. its interesting can printing money fix everything and what happens the day it stops working while your still printing more and more money? this is all economics talk because the market moves how it wants until something major happens.
Money printing erases debts, at the expense of living standards. However, stock and hard asset prices will appreciate under money printing, regardless of the economies general health. A contrarian (buy low, sell high) would find European equities quite interesting now - close to '09 lows, high yield, utilities and solid large firms operating in the core.
i have to take the other side if your a contrarian though in europe than wouldn't you be a contrarian on US markets too? i think at the end of the day stocks need to make money and printing money might help banks but how does it put money in the middle classes hands to spend in the economy. its just interesting to watch with all the fed money just offered to the market and fund managers needing to make money the markets are not going anywhere. what happens next is anybodies guess.
Not really. You're talking microeconomics, which doesn't matter in this environment. Asset inflation is largely caused when credit growth outstrips productivity growth. Too much money chasing too few goods. ZIRP and QE provides a shitload of cash that seeks yield. Where do you suppose it'll go? Even Bernacke admitted all this is an attempt to jump start the wealth effect. As for the US, not at all. It comes down to money printing. The FED will not let the economy, nor the market, retreat. We're in la-la-land now.
you are making different agreements for different markets to fit what you want. you could be right and the market can go up but what happens if doesn't anymore? the fed gave unlimited money to the market and it did not move really. where do you think the money comes from? don't you think there is a price to pay for it at some point? its silly to say the fiscal cliff is the problem now because all the money on the side lines have not wanted to be in this market for years already.
See S&P move down today....nuff said. Corporate profits coming down...thus job market to get much worse...reason: they've maxxed-out their outsourcing. That's been the source of their "profits"....cost cutting. Now what ? Can it get any worse ? Only hope now is, and always has been, Uncle Ben aka "Helicopter Ben". Wait, I can hear those propellers starting up right now...
Yep, earnings are weak and Corporate America is far from bullish: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/10/18/stocks-skyrocket-on-horrendous-earnings/ "Company after company with literally nothing good to say. Line 'em up - Chipotle, IBM, Googster, CAT, Nike, Intel - guidance weak, results weak, forward outlook weak..." As you said, though, perpetual QE has a tendency to balance this a bit and make the market more schizophrenic than anything else.
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