the crash is here, we just hit the wall.... this was written in 2004 so you can imagine what it's like now.....even with fraudulent GDP calculations Throughout the 1970s, for every dollar of increase in productive GDPâwhich we here call real GDPâthere was a $4.25 increase in debt; throughout the 1990s, for every dollar of increase in real GDP, there was a $13.90 increase in debt. However, in the 2001-03 period, when real GDP, even in its statistically massaged form, stagnated while debt grew hyperbolically, each dollar of increment in real GDP required a $63.51 increase in debt. The representation goes "off the charts": It defines a singularity, where the system breaks down. This signifies something else: The U.S. economy's current indebtedness can never be paid off out of the real productive portion of the economy. Source: Executive Intelligence Review, 2004
One thing that must be understood about economics is that an up movement is not good/bad and a down movement is not good/bad. All transactions that occur in an efficient market are optimal. The market can't always go up, just like it can't always go down either. A market correction is greatly needed [and unavoidable in the long term], money has been flowing to investments that carry too high a risk, and apparently not too much on the returns side... the credit expansion cannot be sustained forever... further monetary injections and rate cuts won't solve the underlying problems they'll only push the market up temporarily, as a matter of fact they might fuel the problems. Delaying a correction is not a good idea, it only makes the correction more dramatic when it finally happens... kind of like not going to the dentist to check out that mole you broke in half eating popcorn, just pushing it back one more day... once the pain starts to build up you can take an aspirin to get it to go away for a few days, but sooner or later you'll have to visit your dentist and it'll hurt a lot more when it finally happens...
if you look at what gets us out of recession, it's not productivity, it's more debt.... so to get us out of the jam we're in, the rate of change in debt will have to go up big as we refi the refi........ World banks and the Fed. have just started the process.....by creating more borrowed money
Hmm. I like this. It looks just like a one-day chart of the action on Friday: after the first 15 minutes, down, and then around 11 AM a slow climb back up, ending above 1445. So, a bunch of people took advantage of the morning pop to sell, and a bunch of other people, unafraid of the weekend, bought it right into the close. And on here, nearly 60% of the folks are looking for a crash. And the VIX is still at 30. (OK, 29.99. Somebody from Target must have priced it.) Looks to me like everything is lined up for a continuation of this rally, because nobody believes in it.
The "hot money" extracted from the dot-com crash was pretty liquid and came out in a relatively short time. Maybe this helped avert what could have been a depression. The money coming out of the real estate bust is moving a whole bunch more slowly and doesn't have any helpful focus (T-bills, anyone?). I doubt that this is a good thing. At any rate (pun unintended) i'm no economist but I'm pretty sure we're condemned to living in interesting times for the foreseeable future. "Foreseeable future" - that's a good one.
A poll like this is most useful if it yields definitely skewed results. If we had an 80/20 yes-crash vote we could perhaps extract some encouragement from this exercise but the numbers as they stand at this moment don't do much in terms of defining the situation. So far the poll seems to support continuation, but continuation of what - the rally, the correction, or the bull trend. Maybe we should try this again in a month.. What's that? Did somebody just say 'skew you and your useless polls'?
Maybe people just don't realize how rare the event they're voting for is. There have been mini-crashes since the one in '87, the last being just this past Wednesday. But big ones like '29 or '87 don't just come along every day. Or maybe they think 3 or 4% down in one day is a crash? Actually, aren't their limits now, so if we really crapped out, all trading would stop anyway?