This is impossible to trade you cant even take a leak with out some quirky move. I was making a ton with a trend, this whipping around is for the birds.
Bull were sooooo close to the bullish engulfer they were all wishing for. Near yesterday's highs the shorts were done covering and then intraday length bailed.
<b>mymini</b>, get used to this. We'll be seeing much more volatility in 2007 = beyond than most traders have handled in their career. It's coming. There is most probably more selling to come... similar to Tuesday afternoon. They haven't bottomed for keeps just yet, that will come in very dramatic fashion. Soon.
I agree. Definately a possible phase shift. I just want the market higher so I can sell anything I can get my hands on. Its too risky at this point. You and I both know that a lot of hedge funds are underwater right now. You can bet they were doubling down today. It has worked for the past 4 years, why not this time. Any more shakeouts could send this market tumbling in a big way. Loving these markets... so much money on the table.
This is sweeet! My account is up nicely this week. And I trade long only! but just wait until I get my shorting system up and running...
Question for everyone that answered on this thread - this is a long post, I hope you guys will be patient! I'm new to futures trading, and just started trading the YM contract on 02/27 - trial by fire! 02/27 sold into avalanche, covered after bounce - one trade for the day, great start. 02/28 made a couple of trades, net profit at end of day - again, from short side mostly into downdrafts. 03/01 problem arose today - I had written down on my trade sheet to "buy 12,100 support and short 12,300 resistance" (gleaned from 02/27 price action). We all knew the market was going down on the open, and I couldn't pull the trigger to sell into the abyss. Ok, missed that move, deal with it. But what I consider to be the real problem is this - I didn't pull the trigger to buy when we hit 12,100. We all know when the moves are that fast and violent, you have to be quick on the trigger. But I didn't make the trade, and it wasn't about being fast. Result - missed the big jump up. I froze after missing the initial short trade - couldn't pull the trigger to go long, even though it was the clear move to make - I was even saying to myself, "you HAVE to buy this type of extreme move" - fade it - AND I had on my sheet to buy the level 12,100 - it was there for the taking. Then to top it off, I spent the day trading in and out to the tune of net loss for the day. How do I get over this "directional trade bias" problem - being more inclined and comfortable trading one way over the other? I'm gunshy about buying into severe downdrafts, but have no problem selling severe upswings. I can fade violent upmoves, and sell into avalanches - but fading downswings, buying into gushers - that is difficult for me. I can't seem to shake it. And it applies to the ability to hold a trade longer too - if I'm short, I have more patience. But if I go long, I'm more fearful. Anyone have any suggestions for me?
First of all, you have to recognize the trend, and you need to be selling into downdrafts, and buying into the upswings. Not the opposite. Trying to counter-trend trade these types of moves will put you into a house of pain way more often than not. If you do make a profit, its more luck than skill.
I came off a strong 5 day winning streak heading into today on ES. I gave 90% of it back today. After lunch I was on the wrong side of EVERY move. Shame on me.
<i>"I froze after missing the initial short trade -..."</i> <b>sponger</b>, this one is simple. By your own words, you fear those certain, specific setups. Why? What is the worst outcome that can result from taking those trades? Bankruptcy? Hair loss? Impotence? Banned from ET? (laugh) You fear losing money because you lack confidence in the setup. Consciously you acknowledge the trade setups are valid, but subconsciously you are convinced it will lose money over time. To condition yourself out of this mental glitch, you simply need to take those trades. That could be on 1/2 normal position size as other setups you trust. It could be one YM contract. It can even be demo trading. The dollar amount must be negligible to lose. The trades must be taken regardless. If the setups are valid as you expect, the emotional reward will be solidified belief system watching the profitable result. One way of removing trade fear from our equation is limiting or removing dollars at risk. Traders too often do a ton of psychological damage learning = perfecting their approach while trying to earn in the process. Wrong. That only reinforces all the bad habits which kill trading careers. Take the trades in a manner that real dollars risked are irrelevant. If the setups are valid, they will prove themselves to your own validation in time. With that, you're trigger avoidance will gradually ebb away. Hope this helps