Probably going to be up...just had a quick Q for all the TA guys out there, since i use price action, patterns, force, etc., for trading, and leave all the conventional TA for others. How do you figure that's a "triangle?" I mean, literally if you're going to classify that as a triangle then i can classify any formation as a triangle. It just seems that you drew a triangle on the chart regardless of what the actual chart shows.
lol. WAIT UNTIL HUGE SPIKE IN THE MORNING PRICE IS PROBABLY GONNA GO UP BASED ON THAT CHART FROM YESTERDAY
He totally posted that comment in advance. He can't help it if his post got lost in cyberspace. BTW, if anyone has the idea to jump on me for not pushing a prediction out there, I only predict things when the stars align exactly in my set-up. If someone posts a chart that isn't based on my set-up, I feel no need to comment on future direction based on a set-up I don't think has predictive power or whose predictive power I am not aware of, e.g. the one posted in this thread. Learning to refrain from thinking about future direction in the absence of a battle-tested set-up is one key to profitable trading. So, my question to the OP would be, why post that particular chart? Is that a set-up you've successfully traded in the past? If it is, then you ought to know the odds of a break up or a break down yourself. If not, then, in my opinion, you are wasting your time even thinking about the question.
Serious question, Regardless of the pattern, do you consider a breakout of any pattern to be one closing bar, or two closing bars, 3 bars out of the pattern ? or a different criteria ?
Logic_man makes a good point. I think intention of OP to post this chart might be to learn from other's experiences, even if he doesn't trade this setup himself. Guessing here.
Which, if true, I think is very risky. The best info on ET is about objective topics like statistical analysis, backtesting methods, performance metrics, etc. The stuff about more subjective things like visual patterns or concepts like "overbought" or "oversold" are ripe for "confirmation bias" type incidents where the OP just agrees with whomever's interpretation matches his own bias. You know that you're going to get a split in opinion when you post something like "will we break up or down?", so unless you really don't have an opinion, which is kind of rare, whichever side of the split you were on before you posted the thread is probably where you will end up after the thread is done getting responses. In which case, the thread really didn't help you at all unless you were right to begin with. In which case, you didn't need the thread.
Good question. Let me answer it directly. I don't believe price can be predicted, but I still chart patterns for fun sometimes (outside of my actual trading). In other words, this triangle pattern I posted has no effect on whether or not I will buy or sell anything. Sometimes it's fun for me to see the discussions that follow from such a question. Every so often someone posts something that makes me think outside the box. And, if in the process of all this pattern charting I actually discover how to predict price, that would have obvious benefits, too! But personally, I have no idea if it's going to go up, down, or sideways. I just enjoy reading people's thoughts and how different people can interpret the same chart differently.
very good points again. As you said the most likely use of such a thread is to act as a confirmation tool for the OP.