Don't worry. Our problems of shittery will be resolved once Biden completes his promise to end US Gas/Oil companies from making any profits for ONCE and for ALL. How DARE they finally make a profit, now that there is a war in Europe (instead of elsewhere every day). In any case, as Schiff said, the United Kingdom was the first western nation to BLINK. And now we'll see what happens... lots of major down-side catalysts still available, with very little upside catalysts, except for maybe irrational exuberance. Even if the UK manages to hold things together... someway... somehow over the next decade... there are a bunch of European countries that are already bankrupt. Interest rates already in negative territory for some time in Europe. So what's next?
Rant on... The problem is the western world had rates too low for too long and now have asset markets pumped up to eye-watering levels... If they actually raised rates to restrictive levels (positive real rates) the stock, bond, and housing markets will FREEZE UP or get repriced very far away from bubble valuations. Home buyers won't even qualify if there are positive real rates... This is what happens when you don't control the banking system, have no lending standards, put all the loans on central bank balance sheets and extend gov agency guarantees, removing any reserve requirements... They are debasing YOUR monetary unit via reckless credit expansion and interest rate manipulation, which is ultimately for the purpose of growing bank, corporate, and gov power. This is financial repression. But they say, we are "creating jobs" and a "wealth effect" so you should just shut up and be grateful. They expanded credit recklessly. For decades it was extend and pretend, refinance and roll, ZIRP and QE infinity now and forever... This is the banks worst nightmare. I don't think Powell has it in him to actually do this. He will fold just like the other central banks have, with excuses like "financial stability"... However, a real problem for them, is the fact that rampant inflation destroys the returns for bond holders. That applies to sovereign, corporate, and EM debt. That alone causes financial instability that can only be remedied by lower inflation... Also, corporations will be forced to pay higher rates to their creditors (bond holders), reducing profitability, which is recessionary and bad for stock investors... Think about it, would you buy Eurozone debt with 10.7% annualized inflation at yields half that?
Democrats crash the economy, Republicans have to fix it again, as usual... Trump had the lowest unemployment rate in the whole history of the US...
Trump had ZIRP, like he requested until the end of his term. Now look what is happening because of his insistence. Inflation. And don't pull out some BS narrative of "it was good for the economy". Yeah, look how good it is now. The economy and the markets are going into the toilet. Because Trump mesmerized Powell to keep rates low and befuddled the Fed, while the local Fed bank presidents were making money hand-over-fist on insider trading. During Biden's run, it is all coming home to roost. The Fed, and the markets, are screwed. Thanks Trump.
What happens at the "fomcs"? I'm the opposite of you Ken (again LOL). I think today and yesterday's pullback was just some chop, which shows market resilience given Friday's HUGE gains (i.e. if the market was truly weak it would have retraced more, so its at least a minor bull sign). So I think if whatever happens at the fomc meeting whenever that is, if its what is expected or not anything worse markets go higher. If its significantly worse then what was expected another huge down round.
I have a feeling that the market is going to rise or at least not drop as much tomorrow. The inflation has been tapered off a bit, still at an unacceptable level yes, but it's not getting worse or at least not getting worse at a faster rate. With productivity increasing due to covid easing and the economy reopening and more and more people going back to work and the government stopping the overspending it's reasonable to expect inflation to taper off especially for countries that are energy-producing. If you look at the worldwide trend, central banks are not increasing their interest rate at a faster pace than expected and some countries like Canada even increased the rate at a slower pace than expected at the latest rate decision meeting. If Canada is any indication of what the Fed might do tomorrow with Canada being the largest trading partner of the US and similar economic structure, the Fed might and just might increase the interest rate by less than expected as well or at least increase in line with expectations and not faster. If the Fed increases the rate at least in line with expectations, the market will not go down or at least not as much. And if the Fed increases the rate by less than the consensus like in Canada, then the market might even rise.