It's possible Ivan, but it's also possible that those who are STILL long at these levels are the suicidal ones. I am concerened if the market does break out to the upside fast. It's HIGHLY possible. Over this weekend I'm trying to develop a plan of action to factor this in. I'm levered about 1.65, so not too extreme.
I would say yes, as the rally is not backed by fundamentals. By crowd stupidity can go a long way (remember dotcom bubble), before busting.
you guys are going back and forth for the wrong reasons. who can tell me, seriously, what is the chart saying? let me start - we are still in the continuation phase of the bull run, based on the momentum, upper target 1100, strong support around 900... since we are in the middle of the 900-1100 range, taking a mildly bullish stance is the best - e.g. selling Out of Money puts, or taking modest long positions in small pull-backs. Shorting is gamble at the moment. (I am talking about daily charts looking at about 1 year worth of background) who else?
we need another bubble to continue this tarp rally, wont be techs, wont be real estate, wont be unemployed pumpimg legalized poker machiines, whatever it is , the banks will have to fund it , i dont see them letting go of any cash, they need it for the commercial real estate dump comin down the pike. At best we have a pullback to 950 and build a base, then this rally might fool most of the people most of the time, right now its still a knockout 10 1/2 trannie (sal's words)