Are we close to a top?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Kubinec, Aug 26, 2009.

  1. Kubinec

    Kubinec

    I see a huge weakness in the overall market. No 10+ moves on good news, and even then there's a immediate sell off. Seems like either there are no more cash, no more fools, or both. I'll be looking to buy deep OTM puts on the SPY or even better, the 2x or 3x funds sometime during the next two weeks.
     
  2. I wouldn't leverage if I were you. The "recession is over" belief is growing, especially if we start to see employment pick up. Employment is the biggest problem in this economy.
     
  3. I agree to pet
    A lot of people are looking for the market to tank
    i think they will take this higher ( screw all the short,s )
    to bring it down by october .
    The only problem is unemployment .
    If unemployment decrease,s i think the market will shoot up.
     
  4. Kubinec

    Kubinec

    Lots of people were looking for the market to tank since we broke the 950 resistance, including me.

    This time it seems different. I hadn't seen the market sell off on good news (pretty good actually) ever since this rally started, so maybe there's going to be blow off top soon followed by a huge sell off once the banking trouble starts to pound the headlines hard.
     
  5. jnorty

    jnorty

    thats the bulls biggest comback"everyones looking for a top so it can't happen" my ass everyones looking for a top. institutional bullishness is near oct 2007 highs, put to call is super low for weeks, short interest is down huge over the past 6 months,the media is going wild with 100's of guests saying s@p 1200,future trading bullishness is off the charts. those are the facts and what people are doing with there money. every bear who fought this the last 6 months is destoyed and bk and theres few real bears left.
     
  6. Jym

    Jym

    After we had that huge drop last year the highest we were able to bounce was around 1045.
    That's been my top. I just had no idea we would get up here this fast. I thought itd be later this year/early next year after we had another dip.

    But yeah if we actually manage to close above 1050 or so I would have to go long expecting us to just keep on rallying up to around 1,100 or 1150 pretty quickly

    After getting burned a couple times going short too soon I'm just in cash now playing some little scalps here and there.
     
  7. Bullish:

    Long SPY, Put protection for a fixed loss. This market is subject to a blindsided, -300 DOW point day, and everyone crying on CNBC. So, if you want to go long, grab the put protection in case of a real bad selloff and you're fine. Trend is your friend until it isn't, right?

    Bearish:

    I wouldn't put on a short until you see a break in trend, don't call a top, wait for it to turnover for consecutive days and some bad economic news that no one was expecting (worse than expected unemployment # is probably the econ. release that can do it),when's the last time we've seen two consecutive down weeks, February?!?!!??? Resiliency.
     
  8. Kubinec

    Kubinec

    I'm also not getting into it until I see some confirmation.

    It's funny that you notice 1045 as a possible turning point. See a thread I made some while ago.

    http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=173822
     
  9. if we break 9116, last weeks low, i think we could see a snow ball effect.

    The top will probably be 10 to 10500 if we continue this rally

    i just cant help but be bearish/ market neutral

    if you look at a weekly chart for the dow you should notice that volume topped off in April and has been going down ever sinse, dispite the rally.
     
  10. Well majority of the people are looking to short now or are already short
    The market goes the direction where it can screw the most people
    To be bullish right now is very hard All the stock are up atleast %100 to %200
    It has to go down but how hight it is going to go before it fall like - 300 to - 400 point in the dow to create panic no one know
    I know big hedge fund who are taking short position like %20 percent when they should be going in %50 and if the maret goes higher they will add to their position
    Like i am buying faz
    i buy 25 shares at $23
    i have a order to buy 25 shares at $20
    I have a order to buy 25 shares at $15
    But i am not going 100 shares long at $23.00 cause it august and the market can go any direction
    This is just a eg
     
    #10     Aug 27, 2009