Want to start a little discussion... I think this is the perfect entry for a long duration entry into the treasury market. 10 yr at 4.24%, yield curve projecting quite a bit of economic bullishness as it is (short duration is at 3%). An flattening of the curve takes long yields from 4.24% -> 3%, a 30% capital appreciation move. A slight inversion at 2.5% takes us to 40% capital appreciation. Lots of room for fear and economic bearishness here. If bonds are a sell here, then you are saying that wheat, crude, and soy are going higher from here and STAYING higher from here. Additionally you are saying that dollars will flow INTO equity markets away from risk free assets as these commodity costs continue their ascent.(so with $150 crude, no flight to quality) I just don't buy that My idea in a nutshell: The mere fact that global consumer is being noticeably affected by the current runup in commodity prices is a tell that a continuation of this commodity run is not sustainable - demand destruction will occur in a global context to offset intermediate supply issues. Upon a falloff in commodity demand, inflation #s should actually reverse. This should ease yield expectations in long duration notes (and in addition to so much cash in the system, this is perhaps why long duration yields never made it to 70-80s oil shock levels) And of course, it doesn't hurt that the fed will keep printing money.