Discussion in 'Trading' started by chaosclarity, Sep 29, 2011.
It is up or down. Vote in the poll goddamit!
i voted down, but i don't think this will be the big dump- this will simply be leg 3 in of the 5 leg sequence imo. we should see a bear market that takes us down to maybe 7300 or so in the dow by next fall, and then we'll bounce up to about 9500 before taking the real plunge to new lows
the big question is will earnings fall, earnings have been good so far and disconnected from the larger picture.
earnings are all to one degree or another tied to our government deficit. if we actually reign that in (which i don't actually think we will accomplish) it will be tremendous pain in the short term... but then again not reigning it in is simply kicking the can down the road and as we've witnessed around the world, we can never kick it quite as far as the last time when we have to again.
Earnings can't fall. We are in a highly inflationary economic environment, despite what you have been led to believe. As corporate sales decline, prices will rise to compensate. This will drive sales still lower and prices still higher until the entire Western hemisphere is destitute and sales drop to zero, at which point prices will reach infinity. So no, earnings will not fall.
long and strong
it is possible that the big dump is delayed and the smart money knows it. this is what VIX futures are signalling. SPX refuses to go down, but VIX futures are furiously bid up.
Does VIX going up typically correlate with S&P going down?
I don't know anything about VIX.
VXX (etf) pointing to a lower market. VXX came off the july lows and took out the 25 pivot. We have been going down for 8 solid weeks now and this usually indicates that a sever market break may be in our near future. Stay tuned
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