Extrapolating current trends is always the easiest thing to do, but it isn't always right. If fact, it's seldom right, because the market is manipulated to fool the most people most of the time.
I've started a long equity bet using eur/jpy as a proxy. Scaling in slowly, but surely. http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=114153&perpage=6&pagenumber=27
I have been telling friends for months to expect the Dow to hit between 6,000 and 6,500. I was surprised to read (today) that others share that same view. For me, this notion is based on more than a feeling. I determined that the price of stocks were inflated and would need to correct themselves to levels near the beginning of when this bubble began--2000 to 2001. When I saw the availability of cheap money for mortgages hit the scene between 2000 and 2001 I always held the Dow's range at that time in my mind as what the "true" value of the market was--6,000 to 6,500. In light of home prices retreating to more reasonable levels and the exposing of numerous financial scandals, I am more confident that the artificial price of stocks will return to those pre-bubble levels seen in 2000 and 2001. Too me, the the inflation of stock prices and home values coupled with the lowering of interest rates made the problem worse, given that inflation is designed to bring spending under control. When the cost of credit continued to get cheaper and cheaper (through lowered interest rates), it makes that impossible. This is just my opinion.
The point of this thread is for you to be a nitpicking jackass. BTW, heres another anecdote: I just got one of those "buy my newsletter/system/yaddayadda" emails titled "Dow 6,000"
exactly. thats the point 99% of all ET members will never understand. At a certain point when the FED and governemt continues to act this way stocks will rally despite bad data and near zero earnings and will leave them in worthless cash and bonds. This rally will outperform any rally seen before because it will not be driven by greed but by fear.