LOL ... you do realize that united we conquer (move markets), divided we fall (scalp markets). Yes? From my keyboard to yours LOL.
Agree! I have set up an account with a deep discount broker. No sense in giving all your profits away in commission costs. And, I also understand that hedging, basket trading, etc. as well as speculation are common factors in the market place. My basic premise is: once you know the trend in force you can profit from it. In other words, rarely short and uptrend and visa versa. Would you agree?
Risktaker, Do you mean by theoretical #'s: when they took all 30 stocks and calculated the average based upon all their highs and all their lows, as if they occurred at the same time? Actually, I've never tried to trade it on a short term basis, because I've always been involved in other business dealings. But, now I have the time, and the data, and have been monitoring the markets closely. On an intermediate term basis, I use a momentum oscillator, that confirms the waves, and displays extensions to waves as they are unfolding. There's always some luck involved, but I'd say it's about 25% and 75% ability. As for the Dow, I believe there has been a shift in market perception. Up until the 1980's the DOW had always been the driving force behind the market, and the most respected of the indices, even if it was only 30 NYSE stocks. With the advent of the SPX futures the tail wagging the dog syndrome appeared in the 1980's. Now, in this century, based upon my analysis of the DOW, SPX and the COMPX: the DOW is no longer the key index, and the SPX continues it's push often to unreadable extremes. But the COMPX is displaying beautiful, clear, and precise wave and momentum readings just like the DOW used to do. Clearly, in my opinion, the COMPX is the index of choice, and no not the NAZ 100 either. I feel, if you want to destroy the readable waves in a cash index, just create a futures index based upon it and you will have accomplished the task. We have DOW futures now! Your designer funds make sense to me. I believe Legg Mason is a large proponent of that method. Their fund manager has outperformed the SPX for 14 or 15 years in a row now. And, they just swapped their retail business with Citibank for their mutual fund business. Now Legg is totally a mutual fund business! Agree! EW can only be read from a pure cash index that is quoted and observed everyday. Not a designer fund, or even stocks for that matter. tony
Right, the only meaninful numbers then, would only be available at the end of the day, since throughout the day, both of the theoretical high and low have a tendency to keep expanding (higher and lower at the same time). So that series of O/H/L/C was only useful at the end of the day and a decade or 2 ago, you'd normally get it from the next day's WSJ. It used to be at the bottom of page 3 in the "Money" section, below the Dow graph.
Icarus I looked into fractals, very interesting. Didn't realize Brownian Motion, discovered in 1827, is the root of the EW. And, The first to give a theory of Brownian motion was Louis Bachelier in 1900 in his PhD thesis "The theory of speculation". One dimensional chart of Brownian motion: