Are the majority of great traders systemetic or discretionary?

Precisely - uncertainty is always present..., always the dominating dynamic

Which is precisely why we need exact rules... and..., why we then need follow those damn things to the letter

Can't control the mkt - must always control / be in control of - our self


Two random variables - does not a successful trader make

RN

 

All of em will fit



RN

 

i think it both...how do your indicators fit in the big picture?

is the question i am ALWAYS asking myself.

and, the big picture always rulz

 

Both camps are prone to eventual failure due to one simple variable - future is unknown, just look at the mess we are in now, without bailouts all those supposedly systematic financial institutions would have been wiped out by now.

 

Those guys you list. are all dinosaurs-- how about someone from last 5 years??

I don't know any succesful discretionary traders today.

 

I think they've generally been very profitable over a short period of time with that one account you see, with its typically ultra-high-risk strategy, while you don't see the large number of other attempts they've also made, all of which blew out.

A clearer example of "selection bias" you couldn't possibly hope to find, in other words.

 

the future is not wholly unknown..enter stats

 

You don't have to know the future, you just have to know what is more likely to happen and build a system and rules around that expectancy. If automation is the qualifier, then I know only discretionary traders but all of us have clearly defined entry signals and trade management rules......and we have all traded for a number of years. I also know none who would have the slightest motivation to prove anything to anyone.

 

Ok...of the traders I personally know...the discretionary traders are outperforming the system traders as a group in market conditions of the past few years. Yet, on an individual comparison...I personally know a system trader that's outperforming all the discretionary traders I know while the discretionary traders are outperforming the remaining system traders. That system trader is a Soy futures trader.

None of them are making what you called bad ass returns.

P.S. I probably personally know 0.001% of all traders on this planet. I'm not going to make any statements as if my 0.001% represents all traders on this planet.

 

there's a time for one, or the other to prevail...

and the good trader knows "when".

don't have to be a great trader, just a good one is good enough.