Are Skewed Polls Making Democrats Overconfident?

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by pspr, Oct 1, 2012.

  1. pspr


    A new poll from The Hill says that 87 percent of Democratic voters believe that President Obama will win the election 36 days hence. That’s up from 78 percent a month ago.

    That degree of overconfidence among Democrats should be ringing alarm bells for the president and his team.

    It’s understandable that Democrats would feel this way. Check any establishment news outlet or skim the sluiceway of popular culture, and the message is clear: the game is over, now it’s time to start running up the score.

    The basis for this oft-reported narrative are polls that show Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney trailing and losing ground as the race heads into its final month.

    A Washington Post/ABC News poll out today would seem to nicely confirm the “Romney is a loser” meme. The survey shows a neck-and-neck race nationally, but an 11-point blowout in swing states.

    The president and his team have all along warned supporters that the race would be tighter than 2008, but they also clearly ascribe to the same view of the electorate that Romney does: a narrow, rigidly partisan electorate with just a few truly moderate voters in the middle.

    But a poll conducted for Politico shows the battleground race as a dead heat with Romney gaining ground and leading by 4 points among independents.

    Or take must-win Ohio. Is Obama leading Romney by 10 points as a poll conducted for the New York Times and CBS news said last week or the 4 points by which he is leading in the poll from Democratic pollsters Public Policy Polling out today.

    It’s the same in several individual swing states: polls are bouncing around like a super ball chucked into a culvert.

    There are serious challenges for pollsters today. It’s harder and harder to get folks at home, especially those who are willing to complete sometimes-lengthy surveys. For example, how many cell phone numbers, the holders of which are younger and Democratic leaning, should be included in a poll?


    While the last re-election campaign was a narrow base-versus-base contest, this one may look more like previous re-election years in which voters wait to make up their minds and can swing sharply in the closing weeks.

    If Obama and his team are counting on riding out the current trend into a November victory, they may be in for an unhappy surprise. If Republicans are getting real about the state of the race, this is no time for Democrats to engage in premature triumphalism.

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  2. BSAM


    Skewed polls are making RINOs more confident.