Are share prices random?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by yabz, Aug 25, 2002.

  1. bigscalper

    bigscalper Guest

    Whether the markets are random or not is irrelevent, a good trader should be able to money in either one
     
    #31     Aug 26, 2002
  2. This is way too academic, but I will say this -- nothing in this universe is "random."


    Definition of Random:

    Random: Inability for humans to conceive of a greater system and its dynamics which account for movements and fluctuations that appear to have no underlying bias or predictable trend. (See Chaos Theory for an attempt by humans to resolve the random debate).



    Point being -- nothing is random. You couldn't even design a system to be truly random no matter how hard you tried.

    aphie
     
    #32     Aug 26, 2002
  3. From what I've read there are about 10,000 professional and institutional traders. And of course their actions dominate the mkts. Each of them have different strategies and philosophies, but there are groups of them that lean toward momentum investing, fundamentals, support and resistance, etc. This necessarily eliminates distinctively random patterns.

    And then there's the psychological aspect to markets that decrease "randomness". For example, why do sell offs happen more rapidly than bull climbs. Simple answer: fear! And fear creates non-random behaviors.

    Imo, random walk adherents simply don't want to wade into the often painful but incredibly rewarding world of TA that most everyone at elite loves.
     
    #33     Aug 26, 2002
  4. nitro

    nitro

    Sigh

    nitro
     
    #34     Aug 26, 2002


  5. Yep- randomness and probability are merely human constructs designed to give us a better conceptual sense of how the universe unfolds, all the while existing nowhere but in our heads.

    And to top it all off, now I hear Mick Jagger is trying to get respectable.


    Goin' off the rails on a crazy train.
     
    #35     Aug 26, 2002
  6. Then how do you explain that there are no "good traders" making money at roulette tables?
     
    #36     Aug 26, 2002
  7. nitro

    nitro

    This is decidedly false.

    nitro
     
    #37     Aug 26, 2002
  8. okay Nitro, could you please give us an example of something PURELY random?

    i'm trying, but i can't seem to think of anything that be described as thoroughly random. For example, coin tosses, while random in theoretical mathematics, and appearing random to the naked eye, have specific causes for their results. (however difficult those variables might be to measure).
     
    #38     Aug 26, 2002
  9. To my knowledge, the best everyday example is the point in time when a specific atom of a radioisotope emits the radiation.
     
    #39     Aug 26, 2002
  10. The digits of pi are random enough for me.
     
    #40     Aug 26, 2002